Posted on 10/15/2010 6:48:04 PM PDT by freespirited
There's been some buzz today about a new poll that shows Democrat Joe Manchin moving into a double-digit lead over Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race. The survey, done for Marshall University, has Manchin at 48 percent, with Raese at 38 percent and 12 percent not sure.
The results are out of line with other recent polling. A Rasmussen survey taken at the same time shows Raese leading Manchin by 49 percent to 46 percent; a CNN poll taken a few days earlier has the race tied at 44 percent; and a PPP poll has Manchin leading Raese 48 percent to 45 percent.
So what's with the ten-point lead? Republicans say it's just wrong. "Our internals have it within the margin of error, bouncing back and forth," says a GOP source. "There hasn't been anything even close to double digits since the first week of September."
The poll was conducted for Marshall University by Orion Strategies, a West Virginia firm owned by Curtis Wilkerson, a Democratic political strategist who is currently running the campaign of Michael Oliverio, the Democratic candidate for Congress from West Virginia's 1st District. Besides noting that it's a Democratic survey, Republicans speculate that the big Manchin lead may have to do with the pollsters' method of determining likely voters.
In addition, the GOP source says party officials do not believe Raese has been damaged by the controversy over a pro-Raese "hicky" ad produced by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "We haven't seen any," the source says. In any event, Republicans say, the race is virtually tied. "It's tight," the source says. "If everything continues to go like it has, it's going to be very, very close."
A university relying on a RAT polling outfit. How reassuring./s
Accuracy in polling has it's merits.
I expect more of this. The Rats do not want their base discouraged and staying home. If they think their chances are good they are more likely to show up.
There's the problem with this "poll" right there. Polls are a dime a dozen these days. Most of them are just BS.
Another Hail Mary. The RATS are blowing smoke.
A Marshall thundering turd poll...what else would you expect??
http://marshall.edu/ucomm/RELEASE/2010/pr102310.htm
79% of repondents over age 50 (is that reasonable?).
They used “...a sample of likely voters representative of the West Virginia’s voting electorate and proportional to its three congressional districts.”
- IE: no representative turnout from enthusiasm.
Pretty useless poll.
There are comments at the link from “Dr. Marybeth Beller, chair and professor of political science at Marshall” that almost say as much.
Manchin will be tough to beat though. His campaign ad that shows him loading his rifle and hitting the bullseye on a target that has Cap and Trade written on it was pretty damn good. That he is having such a tough time even though he has an approval rating near 70% is a testament to the way the tide is flowing this year.
There ya go. This is what I suspect as well. The left is trying to shape the media coverage in the lead up to the election - using loaded polls wherever possible.
Rush said the same thing today...as the election draws closer, you’ll see more of these “miracle” polls showing the Dim with a sudden and shocking lead.
Someone said the sample for this poll was 40% Dim, 20% Republican. I’m surprised they didn’t use a 60% Democrat sample, so Manchin could have a 20 pont lead.
Well, Dems have a 2 to 1 registered voter span over Repubs. in WV. However, those dems are really angry with obama and they see Manchin as a rubber stamp vote. They vote dem locally, but Repub nationally. So this race is a toss up. It will depend largely on turnout.
Was this a polling or a poling. Thhere can be confusion.
This could be true, if Raese was arrested for rape this week, otherwise no way.
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