Posted on 08/10/2010 11:26:19 AM PDT by Pete
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him.
Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890-1969) Military Leader, President of the United States
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Albert A Bartlett (1923- ) Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Colorado in Boulder
There was a lily pad on a pond, which doubled in size each day until, after 30 days, it covered the pond. The riddle is, on what day did it cover half the pond? Most of us think the answer is the 15th day, but it is not. The answer is the 29th day ... because the lily pad doubles in size each day.
Linear thinkers (most of us), who add to get the rate of change, think the answer is the 15th day. Exponential thinkers, who multiply to get the rate of change, know the answer is the 29th day.
In the 21st century, for the first time in history, our world has become visibly exponential, that is, the rate of change is accelerating. This has happened because of the exponential development of computer technology, particularly personal computers and the internet. Now, at the speed of light, everyone can tell the world what is on their mind. We can share information instantaneously. We can Google to find out immediately whatever we want to know.
We have discovered a new, fantastic way to communicate, to enhance our creativity, to get information, and to share it with everybody. Hoarding information is now obsolete.
I call the exponential force which has been released, CIC (kick). These letters stand for Creativity, Information, and Communication. Each of the components of CIC is exponential. Imagine how much more exponential they are combined into CIC.
This tremendous acceleration in the development of computer technology has been transferred to everything else ... because of the way we use computers and the internet to communicate ... such as the economy, politics, health care, warfare, terrorism ... by this force, CIC, that has been unleashed by computers and the internet.
How does this relate to the real world?
When the exponential problem of the Financial Crisis occurred in September, 2008, we thought, because of the way we think, that it must be the 15th day. What terrified us was to be told that it was really the 29th day. Suddenly, we were out of time.
Right now, we are trying to resolve exponential problems with linear solutions, which are ineffective or worse, and which are ... just ... too ... slow. A good example is the 2009 Economic Stimulus. It was a linear solution to an exponential problem. It has been ineffective and ... just ... too ... slow.
If you like, you can take your pick of 21st century exponential problems - US and World Economies, National Debts, Immigration, Demography, Health Care, Energy, Oil Exploration, National Entitlements, the "Old Media", the Disconnect between Citizens and their Political Leaders, Iran, North Korea, Terrorism. Have you seen any exponential solutions lately? Have you seen any effective solutions lately?
We have already paid the price for the exponential problem of the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill to find out that prohibiting low-risk options leaves us only with high-risk options. The argument for not drilling domestically is bogus. We have to drill somewhere domestically.
Yet, because results from Alaska oil-drilling will not be available immediately and because environmentalists are against any drilling, we wait, as if this decision could be deferred forever without consequences. The risk we take is that, someday, because of an unforeseen crisis, such as in the Strait of Hormuz, for example, long before alternative energy is viable, we are going to need Alaska oil immediately to sustain the US economy, and if we wait until that someday, we will be ten years too late.
We are paralyzed by the unending argument between those who want to drill for oil and those who want to protect the environment. Linear thinking is about either/or, (drilling or the environment) that is, maximizing or “We win, you lose”. This prevents sustainability. Exponential thinking is about both/and (drilling and the environment), that is, optimizing or "We cannot win, if you cannot win". This has the goal of sustainability.
Will we continue to think linearly and say things like, "Oh, no, no, no, we cannot drill in Alaska. We cannot drill in shallow water. We cannot afford the risk to the environment."? Tell that to the people who live and work on the Gulf Coast.
The longer we wait, the more severe the consequences, and someday we will experience yet another disastrous example of a 29th Day.
We know this is true and yet linear thinkers still say, “We'll wait and fix it later ... we've got plenty of time". Exponential thinkers consider the consequences of waiting, and know that time is running out ... exponentially, toward another 29th day.
Do you really think "We have plenty of time", to avoid another 29th day, even after our real-life experience staring us right in the face
... of waiting too long to avoid the 2008 Financial Crisis?
... or of waiting too long to avoid the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill?
... and now, hearing at the 2010 G20 Economic Summit that we are going to wait too long again, this time to do something about the US National Debt?
It's like we have a death wish!
But be warned! There are those who will try to persuade you not to think exponentially. They will say it is silly, meaningless, unnecessary, gibberish. They are the same ones who will try to control the Internet, to prevent you from using CIC, to prevent you from gaining personal power.
They practice CI rather than CIC. As you might expect, CI stands for Creativity and Information but drops Communication. The power base of CI is information hoarding (concentration of power) versus CIC's power base of information distributing (distribution of power).
Notice how the Chinese and Iranian Governments have been trying to do it already. Have you noticed anybody talking about controlling the Internet in the US? You should be listening very carefully. It is in their best interest to do so because they want to control you.
We need to abandon linear thinking and learn how to think exponentially, if we want to avoid another 29th day. And we need to learn how to use CIC and to understand Risk. And we need to be quick!
It will not be easy. Most of us panic at anything mathematical. My suggestion is that we avoid using the word mathematical and just think of it as an idea. We may even want to call it 21st century thinking rather than exponential thinking.
For the moment, the choice is still ours. The price-tag is our future.
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