[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

What WAS the bet, precisely. I thought that if you won, one of us “deniers” would be treating you to dinner or some such?

[cogitator]

I didn't put any claims on any of the FR deniers if I won. I said (I believe sometime in 2007) that if a new global surface temperature record was not set in one calendar year between then and 2013 (including 2013), I'd disavow my opinion on anthropogenic global warming in a very satisfying manner for any such denier, particularly those who have discussed the issue with me. Basically, if I lose, I will eat my hat, and my shoe, and some crow -- in a written statement, of course.

The record had to be set for all three "major" indices, which is NOAA, GISS, and the UK Hadley Centre.

I also predicted that the next year with a moderate-to-normal El Nino would set a new global temperature record. And that looks like this year. Now, a new 12-month running mean record has been set, which is sort of like the "Tiger Slam" in golf with respect to my bet (No allusions intended.) A few noted names have already been on record as saying that 2010 will be the hottest year ever, most recently Don Easterling.

But because of the La Nina that is following fast on the heels of the El Nino, I don't think all three indices will make it. I think GISS will. NOAA might. Because of the way the Hadley Centre handles polar data, it might not. Also, the cooling Pacific temperatures are going to drag down the global mean temperature.

So right at this moment, despite the June and July heat, I don't think 2010 will set a new global surface temperature record on all three indices. It'll be close; it may even be statistically insignificant from the hottest year for those indices, which differs (GISS is 2005, NOAA and Hadley are 1998, I believe). But I don't think that officially it'll be #1 for all three.

If I'm right, that still gives me three more years.

The thing is, the tactic of making the skeptical-leaning public believe that all surface station data and compilations are suspect has worked for that sector. Tell that to all the drowning Russians. (And I sure wish that some international funding agency would pay for some lifeguards on bodies of water in Russia. Sheesh.)