This is a pretty interesting poll for a few reasons.
Marijuana is more popular in California than Democrats
Yes on 19 - 50%
Boxer - 45%
Brown - 39%
Republicans prefer their candidates to no on 19
Fiorina - 83
Whitman - 77
No on 19 - 53
Democrats prefer their candidates to yes on 19
Boxer - 76
Brown - 64
Yes on 19 - 56
Independents prefer marijuana to any candidate
Yes on 19 - 57
Fiorina - 49
Whitman - 47
Boxer - 40
Brown - 37
Independents support Yes on 19 more than Democrats
Indeps - 57
Dems - 56
Yes on 19 is leading 50-40
Among 18-34, yes on 19 is leading 70-22
18-34 made up 24% of the registered voters
18-34 made up 19% of the likely voters
Among 65+, no on 19 is leading 50-37
65+ made up 19% of the registered voters
65+ made up 22% of the likely voters
So, there are more registered voters in the 18-34 group
than the 65+ group by 24-19
But surveyusa decided that the 18-34 group would not be voting as regularly as the 65+ group - 22 (65+) to 19 (18-34)
This skews the numbers away from Yes on 19 - if the 18-34s and the 65+ groups both fully voted, the numbers would be around 52-38.
The fact that they skewed the numbers in this way - I’m not saying they’re wrong about turnout - makes the Obama numbers more surprising. They asked the Obama question to registered voters. If they asked the Obama question to likely voters, the numbers would be worse for Obama. The 18-34 group is the strongest for yes on 19 (70%) and the same group is the strongest for Obama (47% favorable). They got 79 18-34 year old registered voters to register their opinion on Obama, but did not include their answer to the Prop 19 question. They included the answers of 119 18-34 year olds to the Prop 19 question, and the answers of 198 18-34 year olds to the Obama question. Neither Republican performs well with 18-34s, but Yes on 19 does much better than any Democrat with that age group. Fiorina does better than Whitman with 65+ Whitman does better than Fiorina with 18-34. High turnout of 18-34 would likely hurt Fiorina more than Whitman. The likely voters skewing of the numbers with the 18-34s and the 65+ probably put Fiorina in the lead over Boxer, and didn’t effect Whitman as much.