Pennsylvania Primary Review

Flopping Aces ^ | 05-17-10 | Skye

[Starman417]

Pennsylvania Primary Predictions (?)

Pennsylvania's primary election is fast approaching, with one of the nation's hottest special election occurring, the spotlight is on Pennsylvania on Tuesday.  As a lifelong resident of Philadelphia, let me share some insights on some of the races in Pennsylvania.

Pat Toomey vs Peg Lusik:  In a nutshell, this is Toomey's race and I predict he will carry this primary election easily.

Sestak vs Specter:  Rasmussen has Sestak moving slightly ahead of Specter in polling last week. Not surprising as Specter has the same dismal appeal to Democrats in PA as McCain had to Republicans in 2008.  As Democrat voters take a closer look at Specter, the more favorable the polling numbers look for Sestak.  Personally, I would like to see Specter carry this primary election. As the Democrat candidate, Specter will energize the Republican vote in the general election and carry Toomey to a clear victory. Incidentally, Rasmussen shows dead even polling with a Sestak/Toomey matchup in November.

National news and bloggers have the Toomey/Specter/Sestack  vote-a-trois covered. Robert Stacey McCain is hyperventilating over a the CD-12 race, but there are a few key CD races that bear a closer look in Pennsylvania:

CD-12 John Murtha's district.  Houston, we've got a problem. Tim Burns is PA GOP Chairman Rob Gleason's golden boy. Rob Gleason an intrigal part of the GOP party machine who was a close friend and business partner with John Murtha. Despite rallying calls of Burns being the next Scott Brown, the race is polling dead even.  The district is gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats with a 2:1 Dem voter registration lead. If Burns wins, don't cry to me when he turn RINO. RS McCain, love you but we will have to agree to disagree on Tim Burns

Read more at floppingaces.net...

[hampdenkid]

If Toomey and Specter both win, I wonder who George Bush will be pulling for this time around.

[apillar]

How much you wanna bet that if Specter losses he will pull a Crist and run as an independent?

[Dan Nunn]

I would hope not. The dude’s geriatric.

[GonzoGOP]

Personally, I would like to see Specter carry this primary election. As the Democrat candidate, Specter will energize the Republican vote in the general election and carry

Actually i have to disagree on this one. The defeat of Specter must be the primary goal. In the senate the GOP will at best have a one or two seat majority, but most likely be a very close minority. So the biggest concern of the GOP in either case will be keeping the RINOs in line. And it will be hard to crack the whip if they can constantly threaten to bolt the party. But the defeats of Jumping Jim Jeffords followed by the destruction of Specter will put an end to their threat. You can bolt the party, but you will not survive the next election. Sending that message to Snowe, Collins, Graham, hopefully Kirk from Illinois and hopefully not McCain from Arizona will be worth a harder run in Pennsylvania.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

I live in Pennsylvania and have been getting campaign and polling calls all day. Todd Platts (19th District) is a bit worried, did his own telepoll, and then held an unannounced telephone town hall meeting, which just ended.

Even funnier, Sestak has been running television ads with Specter photoshopped into a picture with Sarah Palin.

Too funny!

[Russ]

If you lose the primary in Pa. you are toast. No running as an Independent is allowed.