Posted on 04/29/2010 4:22:04 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
There are going to be a lot of races this year where a Republican leaning third party candidate would do Democrats a lot of good. The Florida Senate race is not going to be one of them. If Charlie Crist's independent run has any impact on Kendrick Meek's chances of winning it's likely to be negative. Here are three reasons why:
-In a hypothetical three way contest last month we found Crist winning 32% of Obama voters but only 22% of McCain voters. Even before making his departure from the Republican Party a reality he was pulling more from likely Meek voters than likely Rubio voters.
-The level of support Crist starts out with from Republicans is likely to decline over the next six months. On our recent poll Crist had 18% of the GOP vote in a three way contest. 18% is the share of the Republican vote Arlen Specter got against Pat Toomey on a Quinnipiac poll immediately after his party shift. A year later he's now getting just 9% of the GOP vote. Crist seems likely to experience a similar erosion in his Republican support as the year progresses.
-45% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Crist while only 29% have a favorable opinion of Meek. Compare that to 52% of Republicans with a favorable opinion of Rubio and 28% with a favorable one of Crist. If Crist is more popular with the Democrats than their candidate and less popular with the Republicans than their candidate it stands to reason he'll pull more of the Democratic vote long term. Maybe that will change down the road once Meek becomes better known but for now it's good for Crist.
Republicans are going to be angry at Crist for leaving the GOP, but it may actually be the best thing he's done for the party in months. It should help Marco Rubio's chances of getting to the Senate.
A Dem pollster is not optimistic about either Crist or Meeks chances:
Breaking down the Crist shift - Tom Jensen
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2503453/posts
A Dem pollster is not optimistic about either Crist or Meeks chances:
Breaking down the Crist shift - Tom Jensen
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2503453/posts
Sorry, post 2 wound up on the wrong thread.
Crist is/will be perceived to be running to the left of Rubio and will share in the left vote, leaving Rubio to romp in the conservative field all alone. The remaining question is whether Rubio will win a majority or merely a large plurality.
Either one will do.
Many conservatives on FR have registered disappointment with Rubio’s stand on Arizona’s legal enforcement of illegal alien scofflaws.
He may have cemented the Latino vote however. Hard to say. Do we really know how legal immigrants view illegals when they share the same ethnicity?
“45% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Crist while only 29% have a favorable opinion of Meek.”
Racists.
Did you hear Rubio talk about that today on Hannity? His answer was very good. He said that he did not blame AZ for passing it. He blamed the federal govt for making it necessary by not securing the border.
Ya think?
Of course they are racist- They are Democrats
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