Posted on 04/14/2010 10:48:42 AM PDT by Starman417
With Obama destroying the New Democrat brand, it's not impossible to forsee such gains!
In every poll but one, the GOP is winning what is called the generic congressional vote. That is where a pollster asks the respondent if the election were held today, would you vote for a Republican or Democrat for congress. In every election cycle it's been an important marker to determine how the overall balance of the House of Representatives will be decided.
Other important markers include the approval/disapproval gap for the sitting President and the energy or enthusiasm level of those likely to vote. In every one of these categories the GOP holds a strong advantage. Political Scientists use this data and come up with remarkably accurate predictions on election outcomes.
Sean Trende (don't you love the name?)has recently concluded a new analysis that factors in the number crunching along with commentary about how Obama is weakening the Democrat brand that successfully won back the House in 2006. It's important to note that Mr. Trende was one of those who saw early on the potential for a Scott Brown win in Massachusetts. He sees the same dynamic continuing to work nationwide that we saw first in Virginia, New Jersey and then Massachusetts. Independents and moderates are abandoning the Democrat party and voting GOP. Mostly on the basis of failed Democrat promises to be fiscally responsible.
How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?
By Sean Trende
Real Clear Politics
April 14, 2010...I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.
Read more at floppingaces.net...
is the new RNC logo “french surrender monkey”?
never forget about mark foley,
the deomcrats do October suprises very very very well.
plus
Obama will create a crisis.
Taking control of the House is not out of the realm of possibility. But 100 seats? Not a chance.
I don’t trust the RINOs
we already have republicans doing the RINO Shuffle with repeal the bill.
Start with his Birth Certificate. I believe Obama has handed us a shovel. We just need to dig.
I believe it would be like unearthing a shallow grave.
Five Senate seats.
We already ran McCain!
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