Posted on 04/14/2010 10:48:42 AM PDT by Starman417
With Obama destroying the New Democrat brand, it's not impossible to forsee such gains!
In every poll but one, the GOP is winning what is called the generic congressional vote. That is where a pollster asks the respondent if the election were held today, would you vote for a Republican or Democrat for congress. In every election cycle it's been an important marker to determine how the overall balance of the House of Representatives will be decided.
Other important markers include the approval/disapproval gap for the sitting President and the energy or enthusiasm level of those likely to vote. In every one of these categories the GOP holds a strong advantage. Political Scientists use this data and come up with remarkably accurate predictions on election outcomes.
Sean Trende (don't you love the name?)has recently concluded a new analysis that factors in the number crunching along with commentary about how Obama is weakening the Democrat brand that successfully won back the House in 2006. It's important to note that Mr. Trende was one of those who saw early on the potential for a Scott Brown win in Massachusetts. He sees the same dynamic continuing to work nationwide that we saw first in Virginia, New Jersey and then Massachusetts. Independents and moderates are abandoning the Democrat party and voting GOP. Mostly on the basis of failed Democrat promises to be fiscally responsible.
How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?
By Sean Trende
Real Clear Politics
April 14, 2010...I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.
Read more at floppingaces.net...
100 is a nice round number...
That sounds rather insane.
Obama with a Majority Republican House and Pelosi demoted: PRICELESS!!!
Can’t wait to see ol’ Nancy Botoxi’s Face when that happens.
So this victim card they been playing wont turn it around? You know, the hate/race stuff?
:) maybe not.
“That sounds rather insane.”
I have read some of Trende’s work in the past. he uses a scientific method of formulas to come to his conclusions. He has been wrong in the past and formulas hardly account for any X Factors but after reading his entire take on it i think it is reasonable that we COULD grab 50 plus seats if current trends continue
Insane times call for insane results.
I’m not holding my breath, but that would bring the GOP awfully close to a veto-proof majority in the House.
Tell me it wouldn’t be lots of fun to go in and tell her to vacate her office? Spoils system ya know.
That would be a miracle.
We need to peak *just* at the right time....too early and Hussein leaves office in January 2017.
As always, I see the black lining in a silver cloud. I just hope Republicans don’t think they’re being swept in because they’ve done something right. My hope is they’ll do something right if swept in.
100 seats sounds like someone has gone nuts.
Dems will lose at least 100 seats between the two houses this fall, I’ve said this for a long time now.
how these races turn is up to us. If we keep the pressure up via tea party or other events all summer and fall. If we donate time and $. If we get the word out to family and friends. We can win a large number of seats.
There are more conservative districts because of the gerrymandering in 2000.
It we win more state governorships this fall we can do the same thing again.
True enough.But you've gotta understand that RATS that remain will be the *true* believers....every single one of whom,when told to jump by Minority Leader Rangle,will ask "how high?"
Candidates need to get volunteers going at something that will get them votes on election day. They need to do it effectively and early in the campaign. Use the energy or lose the energy. The Democrats have more money now and a better money machine. They’ve finally rigged the game in that regard effectively I think.
I think it is possible to gain 100 seats. The democrats I predict will stay home in large numbers and the Conservatives of all parties will come out in bus loads. This election will be remember for decades!
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