Posted on 04/14/2010 7:53:56 AM PDT by mattstat
No forecast is complete without some indication of its uncertainty. If you run an economic model whose output is a single point you are making a very strong statement. It is no different than claiming that you are certain that the future is known, that car sales will be 1.4 million.
Adding an internal “plus or minus” moves you away from dogmatism, but the problem is that these adjustments can be swayed by emotion, inexperience, or desire (moving a forecast in the direction you want it to go is called wishcasting; moving the thing forecast in the direction of forecast is called cheating). Also, you cannot know whether your “plus or minus” is the same as the next guy’s...
(Excerpt) Read more at wmbriggs.com ...
(moving a forecast in the direction you want it to go is called wishcasting)Wonder if Forbe’s,T-bone Pickens and others knows that?.
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