I’m not so sure the courts wouldn’t overturn the bill. But, the cases would need to get to the Supreme quickly. There are 4 justices who believe in states’ rights and this case may make good precedent. Also, Obama made the grievous mistake of putting down the Court in his SOTU. This would not be taken lightly by the USSC.
The conservative Supreme Court justices have done a creditable job of sticking up for individual rights — e.g., the second amendment decision — but for individual rights we have definite yardsticks contained in the Bill of Rights. States’ rights — there is very little detailing what “states’ rights” are, and can you think of a true “states’ rights” decision since 1940?
Sorry to be pessimistic on this subject, but I seriously doubt that the Federal courts will be our salvation in this matter.
So, how fast does this get to the USSC? Looks like the issue got there already!
It is NOT just states rights.
There is a case to be made that it “Established a Religion” since certain religions are exempt from the tax. (Amish and Muslims perhaps)
There is also a case that it violates the anti slavery/indentured servitude laws.
There is also a case to be made against being required to maintain health insurance on another adult - up to 26 year olds.