[Leisler]

I would think the fundamentals of modeling earthquakes wold be vastly easier than modeling more dynamic gas/weather systems, like climate. So, how’s that earthquake modeling system going? ( snicker )

[dhs12345]

Predictions are only as good as your models. And measured data used by the models has to be precise. Otherwise a minor error can produce completely different results over a period of time.

Not an expert, but modeling the plates is probably just as difficult. How and where do you sample measure the accumulated stresses. How much energy can be stored before it breaks loose in the form of an earthquake? Billions of tons of rock with different fluid properties, the forces driving the earthquake are only generally known, etc. etc.