Yes it is.
“If it played out that way again in the primaries, the general election would play out the same way again too.”
The “If” is not a valid statement to prove your “thus” statement. That’s basic logic.
This is not an opinion situation. You are stating something to be true based on something that is not causally related to it.
Thus, your contention below it is not supported and invalid.
That’s clear and not up for debate.