[GonzoGOP]

We know the anger that is sweeping the country against the unholy triumvirate of Reid/Pelosi/0bama.

In an average off year election the party in power is expected to lose 27 seats. The few times this didn't happen, (2002) it was largely due to the prior presidential election being on very small margin, hence no dip from the loss of coat tails.

Now in 1994 the dems lost 54 seats. There was an election coming off a democrat win and an angry populace. There was also a strong grass roots movement among to opposition.

Now if you lose expect to lose 27 seats if the people are not angry at all, and 54 seats if the people are as angry as they were in 1994, then it would be reasonable to assume that if people are half as angry now as they were in 1994 you would expect the dems to lose 41 seats. That is the amount needed to change the house from Dem control to GOP control.

Now Obama had bigger coattails than Clinton ever did so that would seem to indicate an even bigger vulnerability than the dems had in 1994. And the Internet has give the conservatives a much better way of organizing and bypassing the liberal media than they did in 1994. A 40 seat win is easily within reach. A 50 seat win is possible if the GOP can put together a credible campaign.

[RockinRight]

I’m sticking with 51 seats as my prediction.

[SmokingJoe]

“Now Obama had bigger coattails than Clinton ever did so that would seem to indicate an even bigger vulnerability than the dems had in 1994. And the Internet has give the conservatives a much better way of organizing and bypassing the liberal media than they did in 1994. A 40 seat win is easily within reach. A 50 seat win is possible if the GOP can put together a credible campaign”

Makes a lot of sense to me.