28 House Seats move toward GOP

Rothenberg Political Report ^ | Jan. 25, 2010 | Stuart Rothenberg

[RockinRight]

Actually, I think a House takeover could be done relatively easily with the right candidates.

Even 3 MA House seats could be in play, esp. Niki Tsongas’ seat.

[liberlog]

Rothenberg is the guy who, shortly after the ‘08 elections, announced it would be “impossible” for the Republicans to retake the House. He’s about as credible as my hat.

[SmokingJoe]

“In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority”

We have been saying the GOP will take over the House in November, here on FR, for months. We know the anger that is sweeping the country against the unholy triumvirate of Reid/Pelosi/0bama.
right now, it's not just the ouse that can be taken from the Democrats, even the US enate is looking increasingly takeable, if we get the right candidates.

[King_Corey]

I've never heard of this guy, guess I will take your assessment. Unless your hat is the "Harry Potter Sorting Hat"... It is probable that the GOP fumbles the ball and doesn't live up to the potential, as always. Opportunity doesn't mean success, and the GOP has blown it over and over again. I have high hopes, but we are no where near making it happen until we get good candidates with the (R) by their name. I hope the GOP is listening, get RID of the RINOs and start having RIGHT Leaning Candidates instead of closet Lefties with a (r) by their name. (Lower case "R") Republican Lite.

[South Dakota]

as a hard core repub I have to say that I would be sorry to see South Dakota’s Princess Stephanie Herseth- Handlin be defeated.
She is strong on gun rights and she voted no on the Healthcare fiasco.
I will forgive her for voting for the stimulus package,,,,,as long as she doesn’t vote for stimulus 2.0

[Always Independent]

Nothing will go to the pubs unless they can keep BO and the rest of the demons off balance. He is trying to corner the pubs with his deficit reduction commission which they shouldn’t bite on unless they can get the fiscally responsible pubs to load it up with true ideas for deficit reduction instead of just giving the demons an oppurtunity to raise taxes.

[pgkdan]

Right...the GOP leadership needs to tell him no thanks...we’re working a spending reduction plan. This bi-partisan commission is a trap to get as many Republicans as possible to sign on to some kind of tax increase.

[fwdude]

Actually, I think a House takeover could be done relatively easily with the right candidates.

Yes, but the R(ino)NC will probably screw it up.

[Always Independent]

If he was smart, now would be the time to put forward a fair tax plan that would satisfy all or at least most. Pubs have proven that more revenue is generated when taxes are low, but the dems have a hammer to hit them over the head with capital gains. There has to be some level of taxation there. Too many on wall street get out of paying taxes on big money.

[Plutarch]

Since Obama is going to double-down on his leftist agenda, Rothenburg should double up the number of seats the GOP will capture.

[GonzoGOP]

We know the anger that is sweeping the country against the unholy triumvirate of Reid/Pelosi/0bama.

In an average off year election the party in power is expected to lose 27 seats. The few times this didn't happen, (2002) it was largely due to the prior presidential election being on very small margin, hence no dip from the loss of coat tails.

Now in 1994 the dems lost 54 seats. There was an election coming off a democrat win and an angry populace. There was also a strong grass roots movement among to opposition.

Now if you lose expect to lose 27 seats if the people are not angry at all, and 54 seats if the people are as angry as they were in 1994, then it would be reasonable to assume that if people are half as angry now as they were in 1994 you would expect the dems to lose 41 seats. That is the amount needed to change the house from Dem control to GOP control.

Now Obama had bigger coattails than Clinton ever did so that would seem to indicate an even bigger vulnerability than the dems had in 1994. And the Internet has give the conservatives a much better way of organizing and bypassing the liberal media than they did in 1994. A 40 seat win is easily within reach. A 50 seat win is possible if the GOP can put together a credible campaign.

[RockinRight]

Easy on the eyes too...at least by Congressional standards.

[RockinRight]

I’m sticking with 51 seats as my prediction.

[GonzoGOP]

Perhaps she can be convinced to switch parties. A lot of that sort of thing happened around the time of the 1994 election.

[crz]

There is a thing called a primary that is supposed to do that very thing you suggest.

I suggest that if you want to “remove” the “RINOs” like me, then get a conservative to run and get behind him with all like minded people. It is not up to the GOP to run a conservative as a republican or a rino as a republican. Its up to you and I to have a conservative run under the GOP ticket.

It all starts at the grass roots level.

[GonzoGOP]

My personal guess is 43 seat swing with two “defections” afterwords. In the senate we will pick up 7. Not enough to take control, but enough to have a RINO proof filibuster. However, because one of those pickups will be Nevada, there will be a new Senate Majority leader. And since the last two dem majority leaders have been voted out of office (Dashel and then Reid), he will be much less likely to cater to Obama’s every whim.

[RockinRight]

Defections? Why/how?

Agree with the 7-seat prediction in the Senate. I think Arlen Specter will be one of the fallen.

[GonzoGOP]

Defections? Why/how?

There will be some red state dems who squeak through the election, but now have a state with a GOP state house, a GOP Governor, and know that their state will be voting heavily for the GOP in the 2012 presidential elections. They will be in the minority so won't be able to bring home any pork to keep themselves in office the way they did with the Porkulous project. So they will suddenly declare that the Democrats no longer represent their interests and change over the the GOP. In exchange for being able to get/retain seats on s key committee or two.

[SmokingJoe]

“Now Obama had bigger coattails than Clinton ever did so that would seem to indicate an even bigger vulnerability than the dems had in 1994. And the Internet has give the conservatives a much better way of organizing and bypassing the liberal media than they did in 1994. A 40 seat win is easily within reach. A 50 seat win is possible if the GOP can put together a credible campaign”

Makes a lot of sense to me.