A very interesting perspective, thanks :)
In my experience though, these are liberals and liberals pull out all the stops all the time. Sometimes, it’s enough to get it done. Others, it isn’t.
If it’s down to a few thousand votes, Brown’s going to lose somehow. There, they will pull out all the stops to cheat their way in. If they are separated by more than one percentage point on election night, they won’t be able to do that.
There will be plenty of fraud going on in the actual voting, so if Brown is up by 1+ percentage points on election night, he’s actually won by quite a bit more. But if they fail to get it close enough on election night to have it end up in court, their goose is cooked. I don’t think the fraud machine in MA is as polished as the one in NJ. I also think that many of the folks who are inclined to ‘bend rules’ to elect Dems are not happy with the Dems and are really unhappy with Coakley.
If Brown is leading with independents the way PPP says he is, and if his approval numbers are right, compared to Coakley’s, I don’t see how he loses on election night. Even in the unfair environment that is caused by Rat voter fraud.
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis.
To the dems, this seat is worth two tons of gold:
1- The 60 TH vote, and
2- Avoid the disastrous snowball effect of:
a- The first MA Senate seat in 37 years to go Republican, very bad publicity for the RATs!
b- A ‘10 election trailblazer, (it happened in MA, why not “here?”) message.
c- Scaring the heck out of the ACORNers and the Al-Frankeners (if it couldn’t have been stolen in MA, we have no prayer in pulling ANYTHING off)
These are very powerful incentives for the dem power in general, and to 0b0z0 and his Chicago thugs in particular. Their egos could never swallow such a bitter pill, which means one obvious outcome; they’ll be out on their asses in ‘12.
What an intolerable thought for Communists who, through history, never, ever been ousted in an “election.”
I think the 1% margin for Brown to win may have to be 4% or 5% to make it really tough for the dems to steal.
Most FReepers do not understand the environment in which everyone is a Democrat, like MA.
The Party in MA contains essentially everybody is either a) politically active or b) needs a job, or has a relative who does.
So, it’s a large and diverse group.
Coakley won with 43% of the vote in a primary that had asbout 20% turnout. She therefore could have as little as <10% of actual Dems who want her to be their Senator.
And, because the Party is a coalition of tribes, and she’s not Irish, not a Jew, not a lesbian, and is as icy white a bitch as ever locked up a brutha, she could actually lose.