He is long dead.
All the various parties, from ours to theirs have a vested interest in keeping him ‘alive’. But there is no CREDIBLE evidence that he has been alive in the last 7 years, and a fair amount of evidence that he isn’t even worm food anymore.
I could write a thesis on the why’s and wherefores, but am too lazy to do it now.
Nothing I've seen over the past nine years has convinced me he is dead.
I base this on gut instinct.
The movement AQ started however is going strong, with other organizations stepping in to fill the void of international jihad, it is this broader jihad movement that must be tracked, analyzed and hunted to extinction.
The real problem isn't that killing the individual organizations is hard, it isn't. Track, localize, eliminate/subvert. Killing the ideas and imagined or real grievences that are behind radical Islam is the real mission here, and a far harder one to accomplish.
They found members of his family hiding in Iran. He might be there with them.
They found members of his family hiding in Iran. He might be there with them.