I agree with many of your conclusions, but personally I think the high diagnosis rates are due to the incredibly broad criteria and levels that are not classified in this “spectrum”.
Was a time you had to be very severe to even think of being diagnosed with autism or one of the diseases in the spectrum. Now just being a little different socially can be enough to be classified as highly functional.
Some folks are and always have been different, weird, unique, eccentric, whatever term you care to use. Now most outside the norm can fit a diagnosis in the autism spectrum.
There is a huge difference between the severe cases and the mild cases, but yet they all show up as that 1 in 100. In reality I bet the truly severe cases are far far lower than that.. but its not beyond the pale that 1% of the population dances to a different drummer than most of the rest.
I’ve told my 16-year-old son that if this were the middle ages, he’d likely be considered a genius, and I might be considered something of an imbecile. With our culture’s emphasis on sociability, communication skills, and, bluntly, faking emotions to fit it, he gets a diagnosis. It is partially cultural expectations, but it is also a neurological disorder of the frontal lobe. People with Asperger’s/Autism simply do not have the neurological connections that “most” people have. My son (16) and husband have Asperger’s, and although they are high-functioning, it is good that they know how and when their brain shuts down so they can live more comfortably in a full-color world in which they only see black and white.