Posted on 12/12/2009 10:00:32 AM PST by DJ Elliott
There is a common mistake made when analyzing information. This is especially true when you have incomplete data. This is an important factor to consider as it is the most common mistake made in analysis.
When you expect something to happen, you tend to fit items of information into that framework. That can skew analysis badly wrong since no two people think alike and priorities/plans change. The psychology term for this is Projection. You are projecting your beliefs as to what is happening as being the same as what they are thinking/doing.
My first estimate of the reported purchase of 420 BTR-4 armored personnel carriers [APCs] from the Ukraine was that they are for the Iraqi Special Operations Force [ISOF] Strike Teams.
The purchase fits that plan and the majority of evidence still points that way BUT....
There are actually seven possibilities. In order of probability:
(Excerpt) Read more at home.comcast.net ...
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