CDC is only testing people who are hospitalized for H1N1 in the US. Everyone else is tested for seasonal flu and if positive are assumed to be H1N1 but not tested for H1N1 unless they were hospitalized.
In the US CDC is not collecting H1N1 data on the general population so they lack the base number of infected people to determine accurately, the death rate for the virus. They don’t have a basis in data to determine that the swine flu is “wide spread” because they are not testing for it beyond hospitalizations and deaths. The only valid way to determine if the virus is widespread and dangerous is to test for the flu in selected representatives areas and then they could make valid data assumptions for the Nation.
CBS just reported according to early state by state data of general population tests, only 1-3% (I am recalling here) of those identifed by their doctors as having swine flu based on symptoms and a positive regular flu test, actually tested positive for the swine flu virus. That data was gathered before CDC stopped testing for swine flu in the general population in July.
The data you selected from the CDC site is results from hospitalization testing not general population testing. 37.5% of those hospitalized (4,855) with suspected swine flu
came out positive. However, that is a bogus number because many of those who were attacked by the flu ended up in the hospital after the flu passed with lung damage and/or deadly infections caused by the weakened immune system from the flu. By the time they get to the hospital, they no longer test positive for the flu.
“This new system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths that began in April 2009. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC either laboratory confirmed or pneumonia and influenza syndromic-based counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009. From August 30 – October 17, 2009, 8,204 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated hospitalizations, 411 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated deaths, 21,823 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based hospitalizations, and 2,416 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based deaths, were reported to CDC. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-10 influenza season.”
You are right, there have been only 411 lab-confirmed influenza (not just Swine cases) deaths, that’s a small number for extrapolation even adding in the 2.4K flu-pneumonia cases.
Where does it say they are not taking clinical samples from the field, but only from hospitalizations? I’m trying to drill down to their bases for estimates?
If the virus is gone by the time they test, do they account for that in their stats?
You are pretty on top of this!