Good analysis. The less the party supports her now, the less she is beholden to them later, and the greater chance she has of throwing these statist clowns out on their behinds if she wins.
I see the hand of God in all this. McCain the maverick picks her because she's a maverick who crusaded against her own state GOP. Who else would have picked her? He gives her a platform to launch herself and her story into the political stratosphere, where she eclipses the candidate himself and becomes an instant draw. She's now got an army of eager voters at her back without significant support from the party machine--which is unprecedented and miraculous. She can run as an outsider amidst what looks to be a white-hot anti-party, anti-incumbent mood among the voters. And if she wins, she is beholden to none of the party hacks and has a great opportunity to throw the careerists out and replace them with a better crop of leadership.
..... It strikes me that the only thing Sarah Palin needs to win is (a) funding, and (b) an honest public media platform. But IMO she needs to start NOW putting that in place if she really wants to make a viable run in 2012.
Another suspicion of mine is that, if she gets a fair media hearing, she will develop huge traction among women.
Finally, I would LOVE to see her energy-development approach applied to the US as a whole. Open up everything for drilling. After allowing for exploration and drilling costs, the energy firms pay the feds or the states (or both) a price per barrel equal to the going OPEC world price.
Chaos brings opportunity. Given the present state of our nation, I think that the right person in the right spot will be able to accomplish some very important reforms. Sarah Palin may be the right person.