Morning Market Report

The Provocateur ^ | 09/10/2009 | Mike Volpe

[fiscon1]

There's some breaking economic data. The weekly jobless claims came in and they fell substantially.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to 550,000, according to a government report on Thursday that also showed the number of those collecting long-term aid tumbled.

[Petronski]

Renowned analyst Meredith Whitney (formerly of Oppenheimer) told CNBC this morning that there is another leg down coming in residential real estate values, on the order of 25%.

[Arm_Bears]

If GWB were in office, the headline would read something along the lines of: Half-a-million more Americans join the ranks of the unemployed.

[fiscon1]

and wife of Bradshaw from WWE.

[Dixie Yooper]

When there are fewer and fewer jobs out there to loose, doesn’t it make sense that the jobless claims will eventually get lower even though the economy is not improving?

[drangundsturm]

Once again the prior week was revised upward, from 570 to 576. These numbers have been revised upward for the last four or five weeks in a row. If the current 550 number is revised up to 560 next week, then once again we are essentially unchanged for the past 1.5 months.

The bottom line is, a single week’s data is meaningless. Also, the number has to get down to 400k or so before the number of jobs lost essentially equals the number gained. This figure, even though better than the last few months’, still indicates we are losing jobs, just at a very slightly lower rate.

At best this is mildly positive vs. expectations.

[drangundsturm]

Hmmm. The claim that continuing jobless claims has fallen evaporates if you look more closely at the data:

The number of people continuing to receive benefits fell by 159,000 to nearly 6.1 million, the lowest level since early April. SNIP... When federal emergency programs are included, the total number of jobless benefit recipients was 9.16 million people in the week that ended Aug. 22, up from 9.14 million in the previous week. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states.

In other words, the number of continuing claims at the STATE level declined, but the fed programs are picking up after state benefits expire.

So this report has even less good news than even I thought, and I wasn't too impressed to begin with.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Yes, well, when the pool of those willing to be employed falls, so do the jobless claims.

The ship is sinking more slowly. Yippee Kay Yay.