to post 2.
GOP lost 2006 and 2008 because voters were tired of Bush and his
occupation of Iraq.
Actually post 2 is correct. Sure Iraq was a big part of the changes in public opinion, but it was a variety of factors. The Dems campaigned on the ‘culture of corruption’ not Iraq. They did so because they simultaneously won back those independents saying the GOP had failed, and also depressed the GOP turnout. Polling on voters that day did not rank Iraq as the reason they voted Dem.