Posted on 07/01/2009 11:58:14 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
According to an analysis by the San Francisco Fed, the American economy may be facing a jobless recovery similar to the one after the 1991 recession. Two current trends suggest such an outcome: an increase in the rate at which workers settle for involuntary part-time employment and a decline in the rate of temporary layoffs. The San Francisco Fed’s earlier expectation was that unemployment could peak at 11 percent in mid-2010 -- significantly higher than the consensus forecast of 10 percent by early 2010. Given the accelerating pace of joblessness, the peak might be even higher at 11.5 percent or 12 percent. The release of new unemployment data tomorrow (July 2) may shed more light.
(Excerpt) Read more at mindovermarket.blogspot.com ...
Unemployment is almost 10% at this moment? It’ll hit 11% before next year.
I’m betting it will go higher than that. The problem is that in our economy, we have a large percentage of unnecessary jobs. By that, I mean jobs that have little to do with, food, shelter, clothing, and basics like utilities, cable vision, etc.
The ones that do have jobs, and the newly employed will probably be much more conservative in spending. For example, I love Starbucks, but I will not pay the costs for a durn cup of coffee. For me, it is a once every few months treat.
In addition, higher gasoline prices take the steam out of discretionary spending. So, with our little consumer driven economy, we are screwed for several years at least. IMHO.
pasy, who isn’t an economist, but thinks the qualitative has been ignored by the numbers guys.
Everything is an oxymoron these days thanks to the morons in Washington.
I think a jobless recovery is possible if the Fed simply hands over all the simulus/bailout/healthcare/etc. money directly to the unemployed. Oh, did I mention I will soon be unemployed...no really...any day now.
Unemployment was 9.4 percent for May. June’s number is announced tomorrow. Likely to be closer to 10 percent.
Well, today unemployment hit a 26-year high at 9.5 percent. The highest since 1983.
Plus, more ominously, there were 467,000 fewer jobs. When the job losses dipped last month to 345,000, everyone thought we had turned a corner and the pundits expected a similar number today. Now, however, it looks like last month’s low number was just a turn down a blind alley and today we are back on the road to economic hell.
Well soon a bunch of us, freepers included, will be on a monthly stipend from the gov’t. The only way I see to prevent a complete collapse.
parsy, who will sit on his porch and spit and whittle
I just don’t see what it is that is going to drive a recovery. We are now a consumer driven economy. That means we have to have jobs to consume and pay the people who sell what we consume, but if we have no jobs, we can’t consume, so the people who sell to us have no jobs and they can’t consume.
I ain’t no prophet but I have been worried for years about the nature of our economy. Way too many service jobs and retailers selling crap we really don’t need. I call it the frippery slope. (yes that is a real word)
parsy, who invented the term “frippery slope” and wants full credit for it in any subsequent postings!!!
Parsifal,
You add the jobless recovery to the fact that households are raising their savings rate and are likely to continue to do so. If households save more and more money, becaue they are paying down debt and worried about the future, then the economy is not going to have a strong recovery because consumers in the past have been 70 percent of the economy.
Also, why would employers hire and avoid firing when they are worried about the insane policies being considered and implemented by demented Communists in Washington, D.C., who have no concept whatsoever how jobs are created. How could they when the blather on about green jobs, which cost $1 million a piece to create, while destroying two REAL jobs for every green job created by cap and slave.
I’m not so sure the green jobs are a bad thing. Useless, yes but bad I am not sure. Look at it this way. A good number of Americans have been performing stupid useless jobs for close on to 25 years now, or more. $5 cups of coffee. $70 dollar tennis shoes for kids. Nail salons. Pedicurists. Victoria’s Secret. Sushi bars. Video games. New gimmicky cell phones. Designer jeans with holes in them.Tanning salons.
People have been making, selling, and importing this crap. Americans have had access to easy credit so they have been buying like a bunch of idiots. For years. Malls have sprung up. Malls full of “boutique” stores. Expensive purses.
All of it pretty much unnecessary and wasteful spending. Wasteful spending of fuel to drive to the malls.
So if BO puts Americans to work on useless and unnecessary green jobs, whats the difference? These people will have paychecks and they will spend them and if they are gov’t jobs, they will be good paychecks, and they will buy $5 coffee, $70 shoes, etc.
parsy, who thinks maybe it is the nature of our work that may need deeper analysis.
bfl
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