'Reported' data doesn't mean squat when numbers are constantly massaged and polished, then argued over by 'the highly educated'. Then, it usually, at some point, easily simplifies down to:
Cash Inflow versus Cash Outflow and bankruptcy being defined as an individual or business that cannot pay its debts in a timely manner.
Global economic theory is just that...way too many variables w/ regards to greed and human nature, unstable governments, war, etc., to accurately rely upon.