Continued discussion and a generation of a Media Bias Index of 16 points leftward...
ko wrote:
p.s. even if nothing happens with a media bias indicator, Intrade would make waves in the industry just by mentioning the intent. Just think if Rush Limbaugh started mentioning the project on his show and how much volume that could create for Intrade.
Ko,
Thanks for going to such efforts on the idea. IMO media bias is a great idea, but as you identified it is far from easy to get the market defined or settled with independent authority.
When I was thinking about at this morning I kept thinking of a somewhat related issue of when there seems to be an almost unspoken agreement between the media and politicians on certain economies issue. I cant say what I am thinking of here as it will suggest some markets on Intrade are undervalues and I should know between then most that the crowd is smarter than the individual – and in particular this individual.
Also, do you think media bias is the issue that the world is fixated on? Granted it, it is a profoundly important issues, but by comparison to recessions, depressions and economic growth it seems secondary in the minds of most.
Have you reviewed in detail the Reid/Foley MSM Bias Index? I wonder could that be a starting
10/02/2009 05:27:05
John Delaney wrote:
Also, do you think media bias is the issue that the world is fixated on? Granted it, it is a profoundly important issue, but by comparison to recessions, depressions and economic growth it seems secondary in the minds of most.
Kevmo wrote:
I think the trick is not necessarily to tap into the “minds of most” but into the minds of “them that put their money where their mouth is” and will generate volume on contracts here at Intrade. With that as a backdrop, it rises to a higher level of significance — but still not on the level of recessions, depressions, war, etc. of course. Interestingly, the folks who put more money down on issues are the guys who follow sports. If you could find a way to generate that level of sport tension & interest, you’d have the whole thing in the bag.
Here’s what Groseclose & Milyo have to say in their First 2 Sentences:
Do the major media outlets in the U.S. have a liberal bias? Few questions evoke stronger opinions, and we cannot think of a more important question to which objective statistical techniques can lend their service.
John Delaney wrote:
Have you reviewed in detail the Reid/Foley MSM Bias Index? I wonder could that be a starting
Kevmo wrote:
I believe it was a generated one-off index that compared the Reid scandals to the Foley scandals in their coverage. Such an index is an excellent starting point if you’d like to take nibbles at a media bias index by juxtapositioning 2 scandals to each other and declaring that they should be equal... see what kind of fireworks that generates here at Intrade. It might give you a good idea as to whether even pursuing such an index is worthwhilel Something like a Reid/Foley or “Latest Scandal on the right vs. Latest scandal on the left” MSM bias index is very focused and generates a lot of political heat in the short term. That should translate into volume on short term contracts. And if it DOES translate into volume for Intrade, soon this place would be the place to check for media bias on whatever issue is at hand. If this mustard seed sprouts, it could generate tons of ROI. And if it does not sprout, it still generates its own useful data point.
10/02/2009 06:48:55 Subject: Re:The Intrade World
ko wrote:
Here’s what Groseclose & Milyo have to say in their First 2 Sentences:
Do the major media outlets in the U.S. have a liberal bias? Few questions evoke stronger opinions, and we cannot think of a more important question to which objective statistical techniques can lend their service.
John Delaney:
That is a very powerful call to action, but still the ieeues of defining the market and establishing clear settlement rules remain. I will ask folks internally to consider it also. If we think we can progress it we certainly will keep you informed.
10/02/2009 06:51:18
ko wrote:
I believe it was a generated one-off index that compared the Reid scandals to the Foley scandals in their coverage. Such an index is an excellent starting point if you’d like to take nibbles at a media bias index by juxtapositioning 2 scandals to each other and declaring that they should be equal... see what kind of fireworks that generates here at Intrade. It might give you a good idea as to whether even pursuing such an index is worthwhilel Something like a Reid/Foley or “Latest Scandal on the right vs. Latest scandal on the left” MSM bias index is very focused and generates a lot of political heat in the short term. That should translate into volume on short term contracts. And if it DOES translate into volume for Intrade, soon this place would be the place to check for media bias on whatever issue is at hand. If this mustard seed sprouts, it could generate tons of ROI. And if it does not sprout, it still generates its own useful data point.
John Delaney:
Your comment “If this mustard seed sprouts, it could generate tons of ROI. And if it does not sprout, it still generates its own useful data point” reflects our mindset on markets. Some trade well and generate income vlaue. Others dont yet, may in the future but generate information value.
John:
Here’s an example of a completely independent data generation on media bias that could be harnessed: there is a website called Media Bias Ratings
http://www.mediabiasratings.com/
MBR’s results could generate a measurable, independently derived starting point index. For instance, Let’s say you choose to focus on TV bias, and combine MBR’s ratings which could easily be tweaked using your own multipliers.
Breakdown of the 41 votes in this category, as of 1/31/2009:
4 100% Liberal
7 Mostly Liberal
11 Slightly Liberal
3 No bias
6 Slightly Conservative
5 Mostly Conservative
5 100% Conservative
Note that MBR is a continuously moving tally.
Using a multiplier of 1 for 100%, 2 for “mostly”, 3 for Slightly, you’d get 1*4 + 2*7 + 3*11 = 51 points Liberal Bias compared to 1*5 + 2*5 + 3*6 = 33 points Conservative Bias.
The payout could be towards the difference (18 points) or as a percentage , 51/(33+51) or whatever you decide is proper.
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In addition, there is currently a poll being conducted on media bias at Polling Point. A contract could be written that tracks their results. I think this poll is old, so a new poll that tracked the difference might prove interesting.
http://www.pollingpoint.com/polls/
http://surveyg2.pollingpoint.com/vQT8r0fdCvM1WW
Are the Media Playing Favorites?
Do you trust the media to deliver the news in a fair and unbiased way? Are reporters favoring candidates?
http://www.pollingpoint.com/polls/
http://surveyg2.pollingpoint.com/vQT8r0fdCvM1WW
http://survey.pollingpoint.com/638945
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A combined index between polling point results and MBR’s results could generate a measurable, independently derived index.