Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

To: Bill Dupray
2. A wave of black voters and young people was the key to Obama’s victory.

Or not. Exit polling suggests that there was no statistically significant increase in voting among either group. Black voters made up 11 percent of the electorate in 2004 and 13 percent in 2008, while young voters comprised 17 percent of all voters in 2004 and 18 percent four years later.

I have a problem with this myth. You have a 2% increase in black voters and a 1% increase in young voters- that's 3% and McCain lost by 4%. It would have been much closer if not for those 2 groups.

14 posted on 11/16/2008 8:06:22 AM PST by zeebee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: zeebee
I have a problem with this myth. You have a 2% increase in black voters and a 1% increase in young voters- that's 3% and McCain lost by 4%. It would have been much closer if not for those 2 groups.

Yes. With 3% less of the vote, Obama probably would have lost IN, OH, VA, NC and FL.

Obama's margin of victory would have been by one state, such as CO.

22 posted on 11/16/2008 8:19:33 AM PST by FreeReign
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

To: zeebee
I have a problem with this myth. You have a 2% increase in black voters and a 1% increase in young voters- that's 3% and McCain lost by 4%. It would have been much closer if not for those 2 groups.

I agree with you entirely. The other problem we have is getting the message out to the youth. Of course, this election cycle there was no coherent message, but hopefully next time there will be a solid conservative message to put forth. And yes, just enough of the youth will listen, if we speak their language.

41 posted on 11/16/2008 9:01:14 AM PST by mlocher (USA is a sovereign nation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

To: zeebee
You have a 2% increase in black voters and a 1% increase in young voters- that's 3% and McCain lost by 4%. It would have been much closer if not for those 2 groups.

Just to elaborate, it was not a 2% increase in black voters but rather a more significant 2% increase by black voters. Black voters went from 11% to 13% of the electorate- that's more than an 18% increase in the number of black voters.

Similarly the youth vote increased their numbers by 5% (from 17 to 18%) leading to a 1% increase in their portion of the electorate.

Any state that won by less than 3% could have ended up in McCain's column.

43 posted on 11/16/2008 9:28:25 AM PST by zeebee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

To: zeebee

Non-worshiping Catholics and apostate Protestants helped defeat McCain/Palin, too. Big time.


51 posted on 11/17/2008 5:55:43 AM PST by polymuser (Bye, bye Miss American Pie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson