Posted on 11/07/2008 6:16:43 PM PST by SeekAndFind
As usual, the media has missed the huge story of this election. Their story is that Obama registered huge masses of new supporters and got them to the polls. At first, that was what I thought, but that is not the key factor. I was expecting the highest percentage turnout in 100 years amounting to 130,000,000 voters, but instead as of 5:00 PM EDT, 121,146,964 people voted for Obama or McCain. In 2004, 121,069,054 people voted for Bush or Kerry. Hence in a hotly contested election in which a fortune was spent on the race, there was no big surge in voter turnout. The population is bigger and the number of registered voters is larger than in 2004, yet just about the same number of people voted. What are we to make of this? We know that a higher than normal percentage of minorities and under 30 youths turned out pushing up the Democratic votes. We know that about 15% of Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton voted for McCain-Palin (the PUMA voters). So how are we to explain the results? The conclusion is inescapable. The Republicans stayed home in droves. Obama did not win the election, the Republicans gave it to him by not getting out and voting.
For those of you who have been following my previous articles, you know I was predicting a McCain-Palin landslide in the electoral votes based on the P.U.M.A. Factor. Since these disgruntled Hillary supporters would normally vote Democrat, that should have been enough to tip the balance in the key states. I even allowed for a huge turnout because of Obama's vaunted ACORN express in my calculations so as not to underestimate the number of PUMA voters required. I have been doing this for 45 years and have never been wrong before. It goes without saying that when the results were widely different from what I predicted, I wanted to know how I could be so wrong. At first I thought it was because the PUMA voters did not turn out and vote for McCain-Palin but they clearly did. Then I thought that it was because Obama got millions of new voters to the polls and simply swamped the PUMA factor.
It was only when the turnout figures became available that I had to discard that theory. If the usual number of people voted yet more Democrats than normal turned out and there a sizable number of PUMA voters voting Republican, how could McCain-Palin have lost? When the results were staring me in the face, I was totally shocked. The smaller turnout meant that even fewer PUMA voters were required in the key states than I had calculated so McCain-Palin should have done even better than I predicted. Naturally my predictions were based on a normal Republican turnout. Who would have ever thought that the Republicans would fail to turn out in this election? While I am still busy trying to wipe the egg of my face, I am also extremely curious as to why so many Republicans stayed home. I imagine that I am not alone in wondering that at this point.
Did all the publicity about a Obama landslide and polls showing that Obama had it made in the shade cause the Republicans to stay home? Were too many Republicans so unhappy with President Bush that they felt that there was no point in voting? Were the Republicans that unhappy with McCain and Palin as the candidates? Were too many Republicans affected by white guilt about slavery and figured electing Obama would prove that America is not a racist country anymore? Yet the tracking polls only showed a 6% defection to Obama from Republicans. Mark Bureau has suggested that it was because McCain voted for the bailout bill which is an excellent point. Whatever their reason was, it does not change the results.
I will add two more possible reasons for the low Republican turnout. It has been speculated that it was the Romney supporters who stayed home. The other reason being floated is that too many Republicans bought into the media portraying Sarah Palin as a total twit. I have more than one personal friend that falls into that category. Obviously, my reputation for knowing what I am talking about is a bit tarnished at this point. A lot of people have written to say that they cannot imagine why anyone would listen to what I have to say. My answer is that I am not always wrong and I am not wrong about why Obama won. I offer in my defense: Much-hyped Turnout Record Fails to Materialize Convenience Voting Fails to Boost Balloting. In case you do not wish to follow the link, here is the relevant part:
"A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout. The percentage of eligible citizens voting Republican declined to 28.7 percent down 1.3 percentage points from 2004. Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 percentage points from 28.7 percent of eligibles to 31.3 percent. It was the seventh straight increase in the Democratic share of the eligible vote since the party’s share dropped to 22.7 percent of eligibles in 1980."
obama won a spoiled rotten safe American idol vote.
This is exactly what happened. McLame did not inspire the conservative masses and Obummer stirred the suckers for the kill.
Mccain-Feingold (no, not the SNL joke)
McCain-Kennedy
Gang of 14
Mavericks ride alone. John McCain didn't need us until he started sending out requests for donations. Now that he has lost this election, it's time for him to retire instead of trying to be the Republican Bobby Byrd. If Arizona law requires that the Governor appoint a Republican to replace him, do it now. If not, don't run for re-election.
McCain didn’t inspire me so much, but that bastard Obama sure did.
I finally choked back my bile and went out and wasted my vote on McCain.
We know that about 15% of Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton voted for McCain-Palin (the PUMA voters). So how are we to explain the results? The conclusion is inescapable. The Republicans stayed home in droves. Obama did not win the election, the Republicans gave it to him by not getting out and voting.
Lesson? No more RINO squish, milquetoast POTUS candidates.
McLame didn’t but Palin and Obama did. To vote for Palin and against Obama.
“McLame did not inspire the conservative masses”
You mean fear of “the other guy” isn’t a winning strategy? Wow, who knew?
Republican declined to 28.7 percent down 1.3 percentage points from 2004-—
I’ve tried to make people understand that the overwhelming turnout for Bush in 2004 did NOT take place this time around. The Democrats gave us McCain, now, we’re stuck with the Kenyan Socialist.
The day after the election, Rush talked about his emails being full of stuff from GOPs who would not vote because they hated McCain.
Obama had plenty of people who didn't like him ~ e.g., the 20% of white Democrats who will never vote for a black candidate (PUMAs fall into that category).
They could cross over to vote for McCain, or just leave the Presidential part blank.
Apparantly the 20% came through for McCain.
McCain never pulled more than 40% of the Republican vote during the primaries.
The remaining 60% of the party had sufficient numbers who still didn't like McCain that they didn't vote for him.
Non-voting Republicans controlled the outcome.
Now that we've gotten rid of almost all the elected RINOs and pretty much identified the countryclubbers who are "disloyal", I'd suggest we stand a good chance of exterminating the Democrats in the House of Representatives 2 years hence.
And it turned out, as expected, that the PUMAs were a myth: disgruntled Clinton fans were never going to vote for a Right to Life advocate like Sarah who stands for everything they hate.
And how many people tread too softly when referring to Clinton for fear of upsetting the mythical PUMAs? Ultimately, it was not only a myth but a very counterproductive one.
Well if that’s true then the ones who stayed home deserve what they get from this administration.
The rest of us are unfairly tortured.
All we need is candidates, who can convince voters that they will act like their campaign speeches, and put the best interest of their country ahead of their personal interest.
I know! After President Kerry won with that strategy in 2004, who could have guessed it wouldn't work for the GOP?
“...obama won a spoiled rotten safe American idol vote.”
####
I’m not sure about the American Idol part, but MUCH of the downward spiral of AMerica over the past 40-50 years can be explained by the fact that we are victims of our own success.
The miraculous and God-given fruits of capitalism, and a free, law-driven society, have not been received, appreciated and handled with the proper respect and humility.
Yes, like a perfect, over-ripe peach, our society is indeed spoiled, resulting in such empty diversions as pacifism, environmentalism and now, the mindless, immature child-like bauble of an Obama presidency.
Apparently not enough did. Those who didn't vote for McCain because he's not a Conservative have greatly hurt this country. They, together with those who voted for the Liberal Messiah, must share the blame for the damage which will occur over the next four years. Thank you for your childishness.
“After President Kerry won with that strategy in 2004, who could have guessed it wouldn’t work for the GOP?”
And don’t forget 2006 with the scare mongering over “House Speaker Nancy Pelousy!”
What appears to be the case is that McCain’s little “maverick(TM)” act wrt the bailout cost him something like five or six million votes. Worst candidate I’ve ever seen pubbies field, worst pubbie campaign I ever saw. It also says that the potential was there and will be there again for a pubbie blowout. It also says the ONLY gauranteed way Oinkbama et. al. have of preventing that is to try to create some massive new voting block out of illegal aliens, ghosts, dogs, cats, or whatever, and that we need to be ready to go absolutely to the wall to stop that.
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