Posted on 10/31/2008 1:57:29 PM PDT by Bill Dupray
The McCain Team was on a conference call earlier today and outlined their strategy for the closing days of the campaign.
Team McCain held a press conference today with campaign leaders Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, Mike DuHaime and Christian Ferry to discuss the latest in national and state polling.Davis says we’re witnessing one of the greatest comebacks in political history, or at least since McCain won the primaries. Crowds are huge, and energy is high. Sarah Palin is electrifying crowds and bringing people back into the game. They feel they have the momentum, increasing polling in every battleground state over the past week, and have gotten past the effect of the financial collapse.
Team McCain says they have Iowa as a dead heat, and Obama seems to confirm that. He’s going back to Iowa over the weekend. If Iowa was not in play, Obama wouldn’t bother. Team McCain seems to believe that more than a few Obama states may be heading back into play.
McInturff says that intensity is increasing among core Republican coalitions, and that has brought a narrowing of the gap in party identification. He predicts a final gap of 3-5 points. McCain has always run ahead of party ID, and they see this as a big plus. He also sees Obama’s numbers dropping in battleground states, and thinks Obama will have a tough time getting to 50%.
More . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at patriotroom.com ...
We will win this!
Strategically, the McCain campaign has sucked. Ideologically, he’s a little bit too moderate. With regard to his temperment, he seems to be more forgiving of his enemies than his conservative allies.
But all that having been said, John McCain was shot down, with broken bones, beaten and tortured for 5 years, and left for dead...
Not to mention, he kicked all our asses during the primaries when everybody thought he was finished...
So I wouldn’t count him out. Ever.
ive thought all along this year that party id would be +4% dem
You said it!
here in Murtha’s district I want the daily double-McPalin and Russell.
Whoever wins PA wins the thing.
Polls close 8pm EST with results in from the Dem areas soon after-I will repost then re size of barry’s expected edge.
If smaller than anticipated-McCain will pull ahead by midnight in PA(I’ve watched these things here and been a poll watcher).
Plus another $5 million from GOP Trust PAC. Go Palin/McCain!!!
At 130 Million Voters, if McCain Retains 89% of Republicans, Obama 85% of Democrats, whoever runs better with Independents will win the election in a D +39 R+35 I + 26
Judging from reports about McCain (er, Palin) solidifying the base, we may be able to push McCain’s percentage to 92-93%. The reason I’ve been hesitant to do so is because there seems to be a percentage of Rockefellers, RINO’s, and Fake Libertarians supporting Obama. I think 11% is the highest this number gets, but it could be considerably lower which would help McCain.
For Obama, 15% is the conservative estimate of Democrats that will vote McCain (at least this is what most of the polls are saying). I suspect this could creep up to 20%.
</NYTIMES>
Problem is Obama has so saturated the airwaves the last six weeks that people are disgusted with all the ads and may just turn to a different channel
Looking at the Map and results from 2004:
Bush won Chester County by 11,000, but lost Bucks County by about the same margin
Bush used his margins in York and Lancaster to offset the margins Kerry had in Montgomery and Delaware Counties.
That’s McCain’s big task. McCain can make inroads by winning more votes in Lehigh, Berks, Lackawanna, the Pittsburgh area, and western PA where many counties went between 50-55% for Bush/Kerry. McCain needs to keep Phila City margin to less than <450,000 votes to have a decent shot.
From what the pollsters are telling us, Obama is winning bigger than Kerry in Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware, and even Chester. Will this hold? I don’t know.
Actually I think strategically he’s done well. This is a pretty hard stacked deck. Having the same party affiliation as an incredibly unpopular president during a bad economy should be a path to Goldwater-esque defeat. The fact that he’s even in spitting distance is quite a feat.
Includes comments/posts on how much will be spent in Florida
TAB
We will be looking for your updates next Tuesday. Philly will be the key.
If Mac can hold Philly to Low 70’s or better he wins. If Mac can get high 2-3% higher than GWB in 2004 in non Philly he wins.
If Traitor Murtha goes down, Manion will absolutely crush Boytoy Murphy in PA-8. Trifecta!!
0bama is hardly a fresh face when he has been running almost non stop for 2 years. If he should win it would almost be like inauguration day would be the middle of his term. Time for a change!
The other part of this story is that he will pay for this in part by cutting his ground game down.
More 'D's are voting in those counties,but you don't know if they are voting for Obama.
And how do you know this?
true,
when the returns come in, keep an eye on chester county, the one near Philly that actually went Bush last time. I think Palin made a visit there earlier. If McCain can’t hold on to it, then chances are the margins in the other nearby counties will be bad also, and it will be very difficult to win PA (although still doable).
The story in VA is Loudon and Prince William. If Obama snags these counties, it doesn’t bode well for the rest of the state, although as another FReeper pointed out, there are not enough votes in NoVA to swing the state to Obama by itself.
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