Keeping an Eye on Some House Races...(Generic Congressional at D+4!)

The Campaign Spot ^ | 10/30/08 | Jim Geraghty

[perfect_rovian_storm]

The Battleground poll on the generic ballot puts Republicans within four percent. (At RCP, it's listed as 43-40, though.)

According to this chart, their last poll on that question in September of 2006 put it at 8 percent. The final numbers from other pollsters had it from 4 percent to 16 percent.

Some interesting recent polling results in some House races, too. These results don't indicate, "hey, the Republican is definately going to win", but they indicate that if this is a Democratic wave year, some districts with close races just aren't showing it.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is up all of 2 percent on the man she beat last time, Jeb Bradley, and most polls put her considerably below 50 percent.

In Georgia, the thinking was that Rep. Jim Marshall, a Democrat in a deep red district who barely won last time, was pretty much out of the woods. The first poll in his district shows him up by 4 percent. He'll probably sweat some on Election Night.

In Florida, Republican Vern Buchanan won his seat (Katherine Harris' old seat) in 2006 by 369 votes out of about 238,000 cast. He's up comfortably this cycle against the same rival.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

For all you Eeyores out there, just reinforcing that this is NOT 2006.

In 1994, it was 3.5.

Now, we have crappy candidates an the RNC was defeatist when it should have been preparing for this election, BUT this is NOT the anti-Republican environment that the media/Rats would have us believe.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Ping.

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

Right on. I still expect some scattered losses because too many incumbents were scared after 2006 and the NRCC/RNC/NRSC wimps didn't line up good candidates in some cases. However, I expect aAno few Dems to go down or to suck up some resources to defend themselves.

Remember, there were quite a few accidental elections in 2006, but there are no accidential re-elections.

Another point to keep in mind is that the Dems already have the majority. They need to be leading by some in this poll just to keep what they have.

[The Hound Passer]

Interesting. +4 for Dems would mean GOP pickups. Another poll to confirm would be nice.

[CPT Clay]

Go Jeb Bradley!!
Go LTC Olsen in Delay’s district!!!
Go Lou Barletta!!!
Go LTC Russell put Murtha in the old folks home.
KS 2 is swinging back to The GOP.

[LS]

Stivers in the Deborah Pryce seat was thought to be a loss. Now, it's really competitive. There are apparently two seats in KS that could swing our way---I think one is a pickup.

Still can't get info about J.D. Hayworth's old district in AZ.

[redgirlinabluestate]

In New Hampshire, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is up all of 2 percent on the man she beat last time, Jeb Bradley, and most polls put her considerably below 50 percent.

Mitt Romney campaigned yesterday in NH with former U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley, who is looking to regain the District 1 seat he lost to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in 2006.

Romney also toured two Litchfield businesses Wednesday with Jennifer Horn, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the 2nd Congressional District race. Romney and Horn visited NE Small Tube Co., then went over to Romano's Pizza.

Jennifer Horn shakes hands with former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney as outside Romano's Pizza in Litchfield on Wednesday. Staff photo by Don Himsel

[The South Texan]

The Senate is still the place we might lose a few. Hopefully it won’t be close to the sixty the Rats need to stop fillibusters.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

True. We’re pretty much definitely going to lose something in the Senate, but if McCain is doing as well as I think he actually is, these polls are totally messed up, so we may not be seeing the actual picture of the Senate races either.