I think the last one is from 5 to whatever...
Here are the contract specific rules:
This market will compare the percentage point spread between Barack Obama and John McCain in the final Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll average (RCP Obama minus McCain) with the percentage point spread between the share of the 2008 presidential election popular vote received by Barack Obama and John McCain (Actual Obama minus McCain).
If the difference in the two spreads is greater than the number of percentage points specified in the contract then the contract will expire at 100. If the difference in the two spreads is not greater than the number or percentage points specified in the contract then the contract will expire at 0.
If RCP do not publish a final poll average then the RCP poll average published at 5:00pm GMT on November 3rd will be used for expiry purposes.
For expiry purposes the popular vote is defined as the number of registered voters casting a vote. The official popular vote figures published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will be used for the expiry of this market. Please note that these may not be available until several weeks after the election. This market will remain open until these figures are available. If no timely figures are released by the FEC then we will use figures published by the US Census Bureau.
?
Example of expiry:
The final RCP poll average has Barack Obama at 51.5% and John McCain at 45.0%. The spread is therefore 5.1% points.
The popular vote figures show that Barack Obama received 48.0% of the popular vote and John McCain received 47.5%. The spread is therefore 0.5% points.
The difference in the spread is -4.6% points (0.5% points less 5.1% percentage points). The expiry of this market will therefore be:
RCP.SPREAD.ERROR>5.0% expired at 0
RCP.SPREAD.ERROR>2.5% expired at 0
RCP.SPREAD.ERROR>0.0% expired at 0
RCP.SPREAD.ERROR>-2.5% expired at 0
RCP.SPREAD.ERROR>-5.0% expired at 100
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
So there’s no contract which pays out if the difference is, say, -6.1%?