Posted on 10/16/2008 1:14:38 PM PDT by Bill Dupray
Old model. They put out two polls now. The newer model matches with all other polls.
Don’t forget that danged Bradley Effect.
Subtract 6-8% for Obama because of people who say they’ll vote for him, but in actuality WILL NOT.
So the old model that they have been using all along shows a statistical tie, so they start using a new model to show an Obama lead like everyone else? Priceless...
A question for anyone. Why would Gallup switch to a new model which increases the Democrat support when it seems that their old traditional model seems to already overstate Democrat support? It seems that it’s been shown that most polls (and I’m assuming Gallup is in that mix) overstate Democrat support close to the election as shown by the actual vote totals. The correction Gallup has adopted seems to move in the wrong direction.
I don’t know the difference between their expanded vs. traditional model but by their own site, it seems they say that the traditional reflects a more accurate voting demographic.
That is why the actions against ACORN may pay big dividends. Without them to orchestrate the GOTV efforts, the Obama support could evaporate in key areas.
Correction, you should have said
Subtract 6-8% for Obama because of (Liberal white) people who say they’ll vote for him, but in actuality WILL NOT.
I'm sure it was a typo on your part
Yes—that’s what I meant.
That’s a great question...Obama said himself, registering to vote 72 times doesn’t mean they will actually vote 72 times. That being said, Gallup, Rasmussen and others are taking the 72 registrations as pure numeric predisposition and weighting their polls accordingly. Is it any wonder why these polls are skewed in favor of the democrat with so many fraudulant registrations? One of two things will happen. First, Obama turns out right and the 71 registrations that are fraudulant get thrown in the waste basket and Obama loses...or... Second, they try to vote 72 times, get caught, there’s amssive voter fraud and the thing drags on for a month before...you guessed it...Obama once again loses. I like the way these two scenarios turn out...don’t you?
I don’t think you have it right.
Fred posted a table showing the results of Gallup’s latest poll, with a column for each of 3 types of weighting.
It shows registered voters, Obama up by 6; likely voters with more recent and greater Dem voter weighting, Obama also up by 6; likely voters with traditional Dem weighting from past election results, Obama up by only 2 and within the margin of error.
Thus the headline of a tie.
I don’t think some of the posts reflect this, but it looks pretty clear to me.
By the way, a short time ago didn’t Gallup have Obama up by upper single or nearly double digits? Did I dream that? I don’t think I did.
Lets not get too cocky. I think the Youth Vote will definitely be out along with the black vote this time. I’m not talking huge, but a 25% increase on top of what Kerry did can be enough to tip key states.
There are a lot of retards out there that have grown up surrounded by nothing but liberal media and don’t know how to think for themselves. I spent a half-hour arguing with one of my retarded liberal friends who kept blaming the republicans for Fannie Mae and Freddie mac. His sources were all left-wing media sites. Kids these day grow up in a bubble and get excited over youtube videos of a dork singing chocolate rain.
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in great numbers.
Who the hell has ever heard of a pollster offering two versions to the public???!
PATHETIC!
The traditional weighting is based on actual votes cast in past Presidential elections.
What Gallup and others have been doing recently is giving heavier weight to Dems based on expanding Dem voter registration and a belief that potential Dem voters such as the young, the minorities, etc who didn’t bother to vote before are going to vote this time.
So they’ve been weighting by projection, rather than by history.
Very interesting development and post. As far as voter fraud, remember the fraud is less in the voting than in the counting.
The more heavily weighted Democratic sampling in the polls is probably due to ‘new registrants’ which we have seen is over-inflated to a scary degree due to the Marxist tactics of ACORN. I think things are tighter than they appear. And I can’t help but think that inflated Obama polls will keep the lazy, young, and ignorant (big Dem constituencies) home on Nov. 4th, while lighting a fire under McCain voters.
But fraud scares the hell out of me...
Third scenario;
71 fake registrants vote absentee, and then the real person shows up to vote, but is turned away for voting already. Obama wins, replaces all federal prosecutors aka Bill Crinton and nothing is ever done about the whole fraud mess.
That percentage who say they’ll vote for him, but will not, is Palladin’s reference to white Dems who are afraid to say they won’t vote for Obama, for fear of being thought racist, but when they get in the privacy of the voting booth they are voting McCain/Palin.
Not a reference to the youth vote which everyone is so uncertain about in regard to turnout.
As for getting too cocky, I doubt if cockiness is much of a problem what with the Mt. Everest we have to climb against the Media and the lying and cheating, etc. of the Libs.
Not to mention the hindrance of our candidate.
Great point. The RV numbers are clearly loaded with fraud, which, especially for this year, should be tossed on the ash heap.
Kerry and Gore were sure of that also. If the youth vote shows up will they in enough numbers to make up for the elderly who are not going to vote Obama??? Doubtful. If so they are just making up for a base that is dropping out.
Lets be honest about the black vote, it already votes in a hugely greater percentage of its population than the white vote does....how much more can you expect to show.
So you have lost great numbers in your most loyal voter the elderly, you are not getting all of the Hillary voters and Jews are not voting for you in the same numbers as usual supposedly.....and now you have to rely on a voter who has historically never shown at the polls to make up for votes you are not getting and you have a fired up broken glass republican base who are terrified of the democrat ticket (just look at dem rallies compared to republican ones, if you can actually find pictures of a dem rally that shows the crowd). Good luck with that.
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