I base my opinion on the fact that many black women voted for Clinton in the primaries.
Having a woman as the nominee will mitigate not having Obama as the nominee, especially if there is a scandal that can dirty him or disqualify him in their eyes. The black woman love Hillary more than they hate Obama not being the nominee. That’s my opinion, not necesarilty a fact.
The men may not be so pliable, but reality will set in, and they do not feel comfortable with the GOP, as they have been conditioned to the GOP’s being “evil” over many decades.
They will come to the realization(helped along by the race pimps—i.e. Clinton toadie Jesse Jackson and his readiness to make Obama a eunuch—he is also a fellow Chicagoan like Obama) that the Clintons have always been good to the blacks and they will continue to do so. If they don’t get on the Hillary express, they will be left at the station.
Riots if Obama is edged out? Maybe—I would see it in radicalized places like Chicago/Detroit/Philly but it will quickly be seen as counterproductive. The Dems will close ranks after the convention. The love for Obama is a mile wide but a couple of inches deep. The practical view is that the Clintons can bring victory—so for blacks,there is no sense falling on your sword for Obama when he can’t close the deal in November.
Another reason the blacks don’t want to miss being on the winning side is although they are an important constituency now, demographically, their importance will shrink in proportion to the rise of Hispanic power within the Dem party. Their time of influence is soon to be challenged by the Hispanics.
The Clintons always do their homework and try to cover the bases.I think they have calculated the cost, and they think they can overcome any obstacles.
And the inner cities, where the blacks have power, are centers of Dem voter fraud. Whether they stay home or not, they will have “voted”, if you catch my drift.
As far as people changing their closely held beliefs in order to win an election—well, just look how far Republicans and conservatives are bending over to support John McCain. It does happen.
If Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman, as two old time male democrats, can cross to support mccain then other males who are old time democrats can vote for the GOP.
We just need to spread the stink of the democrats to the downticket.
The only “males” will the the homosexual fetish practitioners.
It is just a matter of getting the message out.
IMO, Hillary will be the nominee.
You do make a strong case.
My remaining problem is that not only do I not want either HRC or BHO anywhere near the Oval Office, I can’t get excited about McCain either.