“It’s clear and irrefutable that third party candidacies have a direct effect on presidential elections...”
So, exactly what effect on this presidential election are you trying to achieve?
Well, in the primary I voted for Ron Paul (even though, according to you, I was still wasting my vote since he had no chance of winning the state). My reasons were that I thought he was the best suited to the presidency, I couldn't in good conscience vote for McCain, and my hope that a strong showing for Paul would encourage the nominee to pick a more conservative running mate.
The effect I'm trying to achieve by voting third party in the general election is the same as the Nader voters in 2000. I do not believe the Republican nominee to be a true conservative, and I am prepared to live with the short term consequences of an Obama presidency for the sake of the long term goal of restoring the Republican Party to true conservatism. I am neither voting against McCain nor voting for Obama. I am voting for conservatism, both in the nominee I select on my ballot and the larger picture of the potential consequences.
As any worthwhile parent can tell you, when you allow bad behavior to continue without consequence you only encourage more bad behavior. The further you let it go, the more difficult and more painful the correction.
A vote according to one's conscience is NEVER a wasted vote.