Have the New Hampshire/Iowa Primaries Lost Their Significance?

I’m going out on a limb and make a prediction here and I really have no basis or strong evidence for doing so. Just my gut instinct. Here goes: “Whoever wins the ‘08 Iowa and New Hampshire GOP primaries will not be the next President”. Gosh why did I do that to myself? Oh well its too late now. I could edit it out at a later date but I won’t. I’m standing by this. Honestly its more wishful thinking than anything else. However, the Iowa and New Hampshire GOP primaries have long outlived their usefulness in the process of choosing a GOP presidential candidate. Which may not hold true on the democrat side.

This fetish with the New Hampshire and Iowa during presidential elections is something relatively new and can be traced to the rise in power of the Main Stream Media. In 1952 some friend of Eisenhower just wrote him in on the NH Republican ballot. And he won by a landslide! And that got the media’s attention, big time. So the MSM, such as it was at that time, sort of turned the NH primary happening into an ongoing good luck charm for future presidential candidates. And the candidates themselves, afraid to upset the media played along like puppets on a string. As they continue to do to this day.

And then there’s the Iowa caucus. The Iowa caucus dates back over 100 years. The word “caucus” is actually an Algonquin Indian word meaning a meeting among tribal leaders. No one paid much attention to the Iowa caucus until the unknown Jimmy Carter won back in 1976 surprising most everyone. And after that, you guessed it, the MSM made another media circus out of it and that also continues to this day.

In both cases one can understand the heightened awareness of these 2 primaries – back then. The public found out, in no uncertain terms, that a specific individual wanted to be president and it gave the candidate instant name recognition if they needed it. Ike needed no name recognition but few knew he was interested in being president until after that ’52 NH primary. Additionally, no one knew who that Georgia peanut farmer was until after the Iowa caucus (except for Georgians). After that Jimmy Carter was a household name.

Fast-forwarding to the 21st century. The old MSM is a shadow of what it used to be. There are now cable news networks galore, talk radio and the internet! Folks can now get a political email commercial on a Blackberry while waiting for their fast food order. Candidates are even trying their hands at comedy on the Tonight Show and others venues. Plus presidential campaigns seem to start earlier every year. So much so that by the time the primaries come around even the most apolitical among us know at least something about the candidates, their campaigns and where they stand on the issues.

So you see my point? New Hampshire with its pathetic four (4) electoral votes is simply not needed any longer as some sort of political barometer. And Iowa with its measly seven (7) electoral votes – what’s the point? This is old school, 20th century politics. These two political non-events, created and kept alive by the MSM, no longer pertain. Not to mention that both are liberal states and the nation, as a whole, is migrating to the right. Or wanting to move right-ward if they could get the GOP politicians/candidates to cooperate and move off of dead center.

If I were asked by one of the GOP candidates (minus Ron Paul) I’d tell them not to place all of their eggs in the “primary” basket. And to break lose from the traditional and conventional GOP campaign strategy (or lack there of). As for Dr. Paul, well he certainly doesn’t need my advice. He seems to have found a fruit bearing money tree somewhere. DD http://streetlevel.townhall.com

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary:

Democrats

January 27, 2004: Senator John Kerry defeated Governor Howard B. Dean III, General Wesley K. Clark, Senator John Edwards, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich and Reverend Al Sharpton.

February 1, 2000: Vice President Al Gore defeated Senator Bill Bradley

February 20, 1996: President Bill Clinton (no serious opposition)

February 18, 1992: Senator Paul Tsongas defeated Governor Bill Clinton, Senator Bob Kerrey, Senator Tom Harkin, and Governor Jerry Brown

February 16, 1988: Governor Michael Dukakis defeated Congressman Richard A. “Dick” Gephardt, Senator Paul Simon, Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator Al Gore

February 28, 1984: Senator Gary Hart defeated Vice President Walter Mondale, Senator John Glenn, Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator George McGovern

February 26, 1980: President Jimmy Carter defeated Senator Edward Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown.

February 24, 1976: Governor Jimmy Carter defeated Congressman Mo Udall, Senator Birch Bayh, Senator Fred R. Harris, and Ambassador R. Sargent Shriver

March 7, 1972: Senator Edmund Muskie defeated Senator George McGovern and Mayor Samuel William Yorty

March 12, 1968: President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Senator Eugene McCarthy

March 10, 1964: President Lyndon B. Johnson (no serious opposition)

March 8, 1960: Senator John F. Kennedy (no serious opposition)

March 13, 1956: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated Governor Adlai E. Stevenson II

March 11, 1952: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated President Harry S. Truman

1948: Unpledged delegates
1944: Unpledged delegates
1940: Unpledged delegates
1936: Unpledged delegates
1932: Unpledged delegates
1928: Unpledged delegates
1924: Unpledged delegates
1920: Unpledged delegates
1916: President T. Woodrow Wilson (unopposed)

[edit] Republicans

January 27, 2004: President George W. Bush (no serious opposition)

February 1, 2000: Senator John McCain defeated Governor George W. Bush, Malcolm S. “Steve” Forbes, Jr., Ambassador Alan Keyes, and Gary L. Bauer

February 20, 1996: Pat Buchanan defeated Senator Bob Dole, Governor A. Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes, Senator Richard G. “Dick” Lugar, and Ambassador Alan Keyes

February 18, 1992: President George H. W. Bush defeated Patrick J. “Pat” Buchanan

February 16, 1988: Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Senator Bob Dole, Congressman Jack F. Kemp, Jr., Governor Pierre S. “Pete” du Pont IV, and Reverend Marion G. “Pat” Robertson

February 28, 1984: President Ronald Reagan (no serious opposition)

February 26, 1980: Governor Ronald Reagan defeated Ambassador George H. W. Bush, Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr., Congressman John B. Anderson, and Congressman Philip M. “Phil” Crane

February 24, 1976: President Gerald R. Ford defeated Governor Ronald Reagan

March 7, 1972: President Richard Nixon defeated Congressman Paul N. “Pete” McCloskey, Jr. and Congressman John M. Ashbrook

March 12, 1968: Vice President Richard M. Nixon defeated Governor George Romney

March 10, 1964: Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Senator Barry M. Goldwater, Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, and Vice President Richard Nixon

March 8, 1960: Vice President Richard Nixon (no serious opposition)

March 13, 1956: President Dwight D. Eisenhower (no serious opposition)

March 11, 1952: General Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Senator Robert Taft and Governor Harold Stassen

1948: Governor Harold E. Stassen defeated Governor Thomas E. Dewey
1944: Unpledged delegates
1940: Unpledged delegates
1936: Unpledged delegates
1932: Unpledged delegates
1928: Unpledged delegates
1924: President John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. (unopposed)
1920: General Leonard Wood, Jr. defeated Senator Hiram W. Johnson
1916: Unpledged delegates

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