Posted on 09/25/2007 1:56:42 PM PDT by nancyvideo
What happened in the Middle East on Sept. 6?
The first reports came from the Syrians, who said their air defenses fired at an Israeli warplane that had penetrated Syrian airspace and dropped some ordnance on the country's North. The plane then fled toward the Mediterranean at supersonic speeds, the Syrians said, noting that sonic booms had been heard.
A Syrian delegation was meeting Turkish officials about the same time,
(Excerpt) Read more at rightbias.com ...
Good speculation in this Stratfor report. IMHO - Concerning Saddams Chemical WMD, it is not relevant to this present day situation at all. Syria possesses the largest and most advanced Chemical WMD capability within the Middle East. Had them long before Saddam was ordered to destroy all his Chemical and Biological WMDs as a condition of the Gulf War 1 cease fire. Syrian Chemical WMD missile forces have been able to reach all of Israel for some time. It is their deterrent for Israels Nuclear WMD capability. The long range North Korean missiles are more relevant to Iran, due to the distances involved. Israel has built up its defensive strategy based on Syria firing Chemical WMD at Israel in a no-holds barred total war. Now the defenses against Chemical WMD are somewhat similar to a Biological WMD attack. Syria could have advanced its rumored Biological WMD capabilities by acquiring some of Saddams equipment and agents. Either one of those would not warrant taking the risk of provoking an all out war with Syria. Israel already has its defense setup for Biological and Chemical missile attack. So that leaves the only possibilities as being dirty Nuclear device or a function nuclear bomb. Stratfor comes to conclusion that a dirty nuclear WMD device is the most likely scenario taking into account all of the factors. Stratfor states that a functional nuclear bomb is not likely because the Israelis would not have waited 2 to 3 months. The operation was initially planned in June. That explanation seems to have the ‘best fit’. There is another possibility that would also fit this scenario. What if they suspected North Korean nuclear material or a dirty nuclear device, but discovered and captured during the commando raid an actual functional nuclear bomb. That would explain the secrecy after the fact. Loose nukes from North Korea. They have demonstrated the capability to at least have a low yielding and barely functional nuclear device. Coincidently the exact device you would need to nuke targets within Israel, since you do not want to affect Israel neighbors if possible. So now the hunt is on for the rest of the loose low yielding nukes and we want to try to get the North Koreans to cooperate in finding them ? My 2 cents.
yep, the ENTIRE region may very well ignite over this one. lots of instability
Heh. I still love GWB.
:-)
jhpigott wrote:
ping
there’s a fight coming
**********
Too simple.
First off, the fight already began. We, the US and Israel working together, destroyed some sort of nuclear facility in Syria, who has a cast iron mutual defense pact with Iran.
So far, neither Syria nor Iran has answered the bell.
From there, it’s mathematically possible that the fight is over, we won, and Iran and Syria are going to be good little States from now on.
As unlikely as that is, don’t dismiss it too quick, because there areeven more questions than Stratfor raises in their analysis.
Since the raid, IDF has been acting as if at high alert, not surprising after committing an overt act of war against Syria.
In the midst of this alert, Israel warns Syria against attacking with chemical weapons, threatening nuclear armageddon on Syria.
Still, not surprising, behavior for countries at war, or on the verge of war.
But then this annoying, seemingly unrelated fact pops up, it seems Syria had a rather spectacular chemical weapons accident that killed both Iranians and Syrians, in the very recent past.
Right there, the whispers begin.
If Israel had warned Syria against attacking with nuclear weapons, that statement would be self-explanatory, but Israel never mentioned nuclear attacks. They specifically mentioned chemical attacks.
Further, there are anomalies on top of Syria’s initial account of the accident, there are problems with Jane’s version too. “Multiple agents”, and “missile fuel accident” do not mesh very well in normal chemical weapons practice, either research, or deployment scenarios.
You fuel your missiles when you’re about to launch them.
A test launch, using multiple chemicals on a single missile warhead, introduces many unnecessary variables into the test. Common sense would link multiple chem agents and missile fuel with an offensive launch, but no other indicators support tensions that high.
There’s just too much we don’t know yet to feel safe in making any assumptions.
When assumptions are unwise, then standard practice reverts to “hope for the best, plan for the worst”.
Now the French statement warning earth to prepare for war fits perfectly, except...we got to that point by refusing to assume and they jumped well ahead of the pack with a blunt statement.
In the midst of alkl the above, we have the germans telling us additional sanctions are a waste of time, and, with a sly wink, pointedly NOT mentioning any resistance to a military solution instead.
This is like watching a frozen pond with a very thin skin of ice covering it on a cool morning.
You can tell there are BIG FISH moving around under there, SEVERAL of them, but it’s hard to get much of a read on any individual fish.
So...
1. Big things are happening, just under the surface.
2. Something nuclear was attacked.
3. Israel expects possible chemical retaliation for item 2.
4. France expects war.
5. Germany steps aside for war.
6. North Korea tries to play innocent.
7. Iran and the US are silent.
Okay...yes...prepare for imminent hostilities. Could happen any time.
At the same time, given how much of the total we know we can’t see, we can’t say war won’t happen a year from now, or even that it hasn’t already happened and we won.
I like the idea of poking sly idiots with a sharp stick until they boil over, then stomping them flat.
It works in the theoretical view, and in this set of circumstances, is damned attractive in the empirical view as well.
If that’s the case, then Iran and Syria continue to buy time, as long as possible to keep refining U235, and we keep poking them harder and harder till we see approved results, or till we stomp them flat, or till there’s nothing left for the stick to poke.
If a 5 year view summarizes the situation at hand, then the three weeks since we jabbed them last is probably enough to say they aren;’t going to boil over on this alone.
So...while the ball is technically in their court, in reality, that ball has probably been declared dead, and we are teeing up to serve the next volley.
Until they do boil over, enemy responses, if any, will occur off-court.
This should have been one of the questions at Columbia yesterday...but no one had the balls to ask it.
What has me perplexed is the silence from all parties....someone should be screaming to the heavens....but all we are getting is crickets.
And I keep remembering what Bibi’s aide said...when the world finds out what happened it will stun us.
Believed by whom?
Only thing left is the item which will 'stun' us.... I don't think anybody's really stunned about what we know so far.
And Assad's whereabouts.
The MSM won't ask questions about this affair because they wouldn't like the answers they got.
Digging any deeper is likely to remove any and all doubt as to whether the anti-war wing of the Democrat party is nuts. And as to whether the War on Terror is for real.
Can't have that...
So what would “stun the world”?
I had heard on a few radio and tv shows about this, but couln't remember the time frame. So I did the google search. I seem to remember the time frame being smaller on the programs I listened to.
One needs to remember that a some of the soviet block nations had muslim backgrounds to begin with, but were held back by the former soviet union. After its disintegration alot of the old ethnic differences erupted again, increased by religious fervor.
Serbia would be an example.
To find out somebody ‘else’ is involved that Netenyahu and his staff want outed and punished?
When what the Israeli commandos removed from Syria comes to light, I’d wager even you will be stunned.
This is more excruciating than the Dallas cliffhanger. Can you give a hint?
Thanks for your reply.
I guess I just don’t want to see it.
They are taking over. Everywhere.
The election is looming; the DNC has claimed there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq prior to our invasion; Saddam moved a huge quantity of several different types of WMD to Syria just before our going in; the Russians helped Saddam move the crap to Syria; paper work and stamps on containers evidence origins and manufacturers; Israel ‘removed’ photographic evidence and what could be carried in packs and these will see the light of day at just the right moment to completely discredit the Democrats and restrain the Russians on the world stage. And that’s all the hint you’ll get for now.
Can you speculate what Pelosi and Kucinich were doing over there? More or less what Rockefeller was doing with Saddam pre-war?
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