[wagglebee]

The election is TWENTY months away, the first primary is TEN months away, let's look at a list of other "front runners" prior to the primaries:

1976 Democrat - Mo Udall and Scoop Jackson
1980 Republican - George HW Bush and Jack Anderson
1984 Democrat - Gary Hart
1988 Democrat - Gary Hart
1992 Democrat - Paul Tsongas

Guess what? NONE OF THEM WERE NOMINATED.

[flashbunny]

You forgot 2004 and Howard "YEAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH" Dean.

[Plutarch]

You've provided examples from the Democrats. As you know, the GOP tends to nominate its front runners going into to New Hampshire, which is only TEN months away. The only GOP example you give is 1980, when Ronaldus Maximus was a lot more of a front runner than Jack Anderson.

So you disagree with the Intrade market? That's fine. But what if I agree with its assessment? Isn't that my right as well? It follows that I figure it would be best to pick amongst those candidates with a realistic chance. Do you have a problem with that? Then go ahead, tax your inventiveness to mint a clever name. Ping me when you figure it out.

[jonathanmo]

Bush was never the frontrunner in 1980 election. In early 1979, Reagan and Ford were the frontrunners. Bush came on later as Reagan decided to "cruise" a bit and gave Bush the opportunity to close the gap.

Republicans historically do NOT go with longshots. Democrats do. That's the fundamental flaw with your blurb.