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To: Marine_Uncle; All

You comments provide hope where I find little or none. From your lips to God's ears.




There is such a demand for oil - artificial or otherwise - that removing Iran's production from the market will jeopardize the price and supply.

Though I will note that not too long ago Iran had a whole lot of unsold oil - buyers were trying to teach them a lesson - so they had to store in oil tankers at huge cost.

Unfortunately, the West cannot "control" Iran and its forthcoming Oil Exchange (Bourse) it is starting, because China, India and many of the former Soviet states, some with borders to Iran, require the oil and natural gas.

They will be happy to pay in other currrency, even more so to barter and with Iran still the second or third biggest producer, withdrawal of that quantity from the normal market and available only through Iran's new "Bourse" will bypass any efforts to resist a currency change.

Specially as initially till everything hits the fan, oil prducing countries that follow suit will make more money for their oil by selling in Euros. So they will not cooperate willingly with the West and Venezuela, possibly Nigeria and even Russia may add weight to the currency change.

Ex-KGB Putin would not mind making more money at the pleasant cost of seeing the USA go under. Russia is one those economies that could survive since it has little trade with the USA and can manufacture most of its needs (quality aside) from domestic capabilites and mining.

Also the Russian populace still has an ingrained submissiveness of the Communist era and would not rise up as would most European or Western countries against their governments. Futile though these actions might be since no government strongly involved in the global marketplace will have the resources to avoid or repair the crash of the dollar.


80 posted on 12/07/2006 4:28:16 PM PST by FARS
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To: FARS
I believe Iran at best is rated fourth largest exporter of crude oil. As for your comments on the Russians. No problem whatsoever. One thing we have to consider is not all the OPEC countries will like what Iran is up to. The Saudis, and the other countries on the Arabian peninsula as well as Canada are not going to screw the US. Same goes for the African countries.
Will Malaysia, Indonesia, and others in the Pacific go along with Iran.
Iran is one of some fifty plus countries that drill and export crud oil. And this will not be the first time the US dollar fluctuates. It has many times before and recovered.
Our Economy is not dependent on Iranian crude, nor what the Iranians do with their money. They are a little fish in the world economy.
I do not see how Iran is going to break the back of the US econonmy. We continue exporting huge amounts of raw materials and finished goods world wide, as well as using things we grow, build and design, manufacture internally.
Iran if anything is a very fragil country. They have little to offer other then their oil/gas, rugs, specialty fruit/nuts.
We can break them long before they can break us.
However. If. All the countries you mention as well as a number more where to go along with their demand, then yes, we will see the dollar drop. I have no problem with that. But again. This has happened many times before within other senarios. And the US economy did not cave in, only weaken to yet again gain strength. To many variables are not being considered in this equation. Iran is but one element in how US dollars are used around the world.
81 posted on 12/07/2006 5:05:34 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned)
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