A Lot Hangs In The Outcome of the 34th State Senate Election

FlashReport ^ | 11-11-2006 | Jon Fleischman

[Amerigomag]

All of the melodrama of the unfinished counting aside, there is a lot hanging in the outcome of this race, and it all has to do with the number of Republicans versus Democrats in the California State Senate. If Lynn Daucher is victorious, it will mean that instead of 15 Republicans and 25 Democrats, there will be 16 Republicans. While this seems like a minor difference -- trust me, it is not.

The dynamics of the legislature are such that the leverage that Republicans have in the process (especially when the Governor has taken to embracing liberal positions on key issues under the misleading vanier of 'bipartisanship') is the two-thirds vote requirement in the State Constitution for raising taxes and fees, and for a number of other items (placing things on the ballot etcetera). Right now, the Democrats need to 'turn' only two Republicans in the Senate to achieve that two-thirds threshold. Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman will tell you that his position is strengthened much more when they need to get three.

Here's the bottom line on Lynn Daucher -- she is not a fire breathing conservative by any stretch. Not even close. But she is a loyal Republican who understands the basic framework of philosophy that unites Republicans together as a party. She also understands that in her race for Senate, her party stepped up to the plate to help her get to this point. As a matter of fact, Senate Republican Leader Ackerman has made her election his sole focus for many months now.

[Amerigomag]

Once again Fleischman, a conservative CaGOP officer, is caught in the conflict between his personal philosophy and his partisan obligations. Torn between his obligation to faithfully serve his employer and his basic distrust of moderates, Jon skillfully fires a warning shot across Lynn's bow:

But she is a loyal Republican who understands the basic framework of philosophy that unites Republicans together as a party. She also understands that in her race for Senate, her party stepped up to the plate to help her get to this point.

[newzjunkey]

She hasn't won yet. Last I'd heard she had a lead of 13 votes.

How frightful is it that the GOP only cling to 2 seats to prevent a 2/3 super majority of the mentally unhinged RATS in the legislature?

[newzjunkey]

Lynn is ahead by 833 votes, an improvement over the 13 vote lead on election night.

SoS, Results

OC Registrar Results

[Amerigomag]

How frightful is it that the GOP only cling to 2 seats to prevent a 2/3 super majority of the mentally unhinged RATS in the legislature?

It gets worse. Akerman is a historic member of the Wilsonegger Gang, who will do Schwarzenegger's bidding and McClintock, a persuavive, conservative voice in the State Republican Senate Caucus, will be gone.

As moderate as Lynn is, she might not fall prey to Akerman's dark persuasions. She may not join the Schwarzenegger/Nunez team.

[newzjunkey]

CAGOP Possible Senate Pickup

( (( ((( PING ))) )) )

[dpwiener]

McClintock, a persuavive, conservative voice in the State Republican Senate Caucus, will be gone.

McClintock still has two years left in his State Senate term. He'll continue to make his voice heard there until 2008. Where he'll go afterwards isn't clear; if Gallegly steps down from his Congressional seat as previously promised, Tom will probably run for that seat and easily win it (it's gerrymandered Republican).

[Amerigomag]

McClintock still has two years left in his State Senate term.

That's accurate. Thanks for correcting that figurative representation.

For my part, I'd rather not see McClintock run for another public office under the Republican banner until Sundheim is gone. Yes, its a safe district but Sundheim has a large arsenal at his disposal with which to regularly tarnish the Senator's image and, if necessary, derail McClintock during the primary. Sundheim can place almost any candidate in that district and has no great need for McClintock.

I'd rather like McClintock able to freely voice his eleoquent opposition to the policies of the Schwarzenegger/Nunez cabal over the next two years, not muzzled by the Sundheim/New Majority purse or Schwarzenegger's bully pulpit.

We could play woulda, shoulda, coulda all day long but it's my considered opinion that the Sundheim/New Majority refusal to support McClintock financially and Schwarzenegger's last minute support of Garamendi made the difference in the election outcome. That McClintock came as close as he did without significant financial support from his own party and against the will of its highest elected official is a testament to the universal appeal of a straight talking, consistent politician.

[calcowgirl]

Yep. Daucher. I was posting her vote status on that live thread. She was the CA GOP's multi-million dollar investment for this election. She was aided by Dick Ackerman, renting an apartment in the district to qualify. The CA GOP will go to great lengths to get moderates elected.

More votes to count, but I think she's got this one locked up.

http://blogs.ocregister.com/buzz/2006/11/dauchers_lead_now_at_833_1.html

Estimates of total remaining ballots in the 34th range from 12,000 to 17,500.

[calcowgirl]

GOP Contributions - General Election 2006

NAME OF CONTRIBUTOR                                   CITY            AMOUNT        TRANS. DATE

Lynn Daucher

CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 10,000.00     11/6/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 30,800.00     11/3/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 25,000.00     11/3/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 75,000.00     10/26/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $200,000.00     10/23/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $100,000.00     10/19/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $200,000.00     10/18/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $350,000.00     9/29/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $110,000.00     9/24/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 35,000.00     9/6/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 35,000.00     9/5/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $ 20,000.00     6/30/2006
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN PARTY                           SACRAMENTO    $250,000.00     6/28/2006
MONTEREY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY                      SALINAS       $ 28,000.00     11/1/2006
MONTEREY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY                      SALINAS       $175,000.00     10/31/2006
MONTEREY COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY                      SALINAS       $ 98,000.00     10/26/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $ 25,000.00     11/6/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $ 27,900.00     11/3/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $ 20,000.00     10/30/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $256,000.00     10/26/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $150,000.00     9/29/2006
REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF ORANGE COUNTY         ORANGE        $100,000.00     6/30/2006
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE    VICTORVILLE   $ 27,000.00     8/25/2006
                                                                  $2,348,700.00     


Tom McClintock

CALIF. REPUBLICAN PARTY                                BURBANK      $ 12,500.00     10/26/2006
CALIF. REPUBLICAN PARTY                                BURBANK      $ 49,255.20     10/25/2006
CALIF. REPUBLICAN PARTY                                BURBANK      $ 30,375.00     7/6/2006
REPUBLICAN CLUB OF LAGUNA WOODS                        LAGUNA HILLS $  1,000.00     9/19/2006
REPUBLICAN STATE LEADERSHIP COMMITTEE CORP ACCOUNT     WASHINGTON   $  5,000.00     8/14/2006
                                                                     $98,130.20

[ElkGroveDan]

if Gallegly steps down from his Congressional seat as previously promised, Tom will probably run for that seat

Not likely.

[ElkGroveDan]

For my part, I'd rather not see McClintock run for another public office under the Republican banner until Sundheim is gone

Sundheim will be gone in January/February. That's when we elect the new chairman -- probably Ron Nehring of San Diego County. Ron is a protege of Grover Norquist.

[Amerigomag]

Sundheim found $300k in loose change hanging around in Monterey County?

Denham must have been thrilled over Duf's generosity.

[SierraWasp]

"...a protege of Grover Norquist."

WONDERFUL!!! Now we're gittin somewhere!!!

[dpwiener]

I'd rather not see McClintock run for another public office under the Republican banner until Sundheim is gone. Yes, its a safe district but Sundheim has a large arsenal at his disposal with which to regularly tarnish the Senator's image and, if necessary, derail McClintock during the primary.

Thousand Oaks / Simi Valley is Tom's home base. He has the name recognition and support and fundraising ability to get elected to anything he wants in this area. But since he's termed-out for Assembly and will be termed-out for State Senate in 2008, his only political options are Congress or another run at a statewide office. He's lost three times running statewide, and unfortunately it will now be hard to convince a majority of voters that he's a viable candidate for Governor. Perhaps if California hits another horrible fiscal crisis the state might turn to him, but I'm a bit pessimistic.

Maybe I'll feel better after I've had more time to get over Tom's recent loss.

[Amerigomag]

Maybe I'll feel better after I've had more time to get over Tom's recent loss.

As you've pointed out, the Senator is not yet lost to California politics. If McClintock does not continue in political, public service the I'd hope his voice could be used to shape young minds full of mush.

Not withstanding the lack of academic credentials, a chair at either Palo Alto or Berkley would be welcome.