Exit Polls: What You Should Know 2006

Pollster.com ^ | November 07, 2006 | Mark Blumenthal

[Sopater]

Yes, the television networks will be conducting exit polls today. But if you are looking for the leaked exit poll estimates that typically appear online on Election Day, you are probably out of luck at least until later tonight. More on that below. But as long as you are here, let me tell you a little bit about how exit polls are conducted, how they will be different this year, and why it is probably best to try to ignore the exit poll estimates that will inevitably leak later tonight.

I have always been a fan of exit polls. Despite their shortcomings and the inevitable controversies, the final network exit polls remain our best source of data on who voted and why. Having said that, exit polls are still just random sample surveys, possessing the usual limitations plus some that are unique to exit polling.

A quick summary of how exit polls work: The exit pollster begins by drawing a random sample of precincts within a state, selected so that the odds of any precinct being selected are proportionate to the number that typically vote in that precinct. The National Election Pool (NEP) consortium, which is conducting the exit polling for the six major networks, will send exit pollsters to more than 1,000 precincts across the country today.

One interviewer will typically report to each sampled precinct. Each interviewer will stand outside and attempt to randomly select roughly 100 voters during the day as they exit from voting. The interviewer will accomplish this task by counting voters as they leave the polling place and selecting every voter at a specific interval (every 3rd or 5th voter, for example). The interval is chosen so that approximately 100 interviews will be spread evenly over the course of the day.

[dynachrome]

From reply #1 in the article: "Mark, in your opinion, what's the best website to follow through the evening for election results? I used DKos and MyDD before,..."

He ain't following the results on FR? tsk,tsk.

[TBP]

FR.