Posted on 10/26/2006 5:44:03 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Ok, well, actually, we can’t break into Rove’s head and we don’t know why he’s personally confident. Many speculate that the veneer of hope masks unalloyed fear. But here are seven reasons cited by people who also read “THE polls” and who are in regular commerce with Rove, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor.
Let’s define our term, first. “Optimism” doesn’t mean that these Republicans are convinced that they’ll pick up seats. The White House knows that its majorities in both chambers will be reduced. Optimism also doesn’t imply that these Republicans are blind to the probability of a Dem House takeover and the possibility of a Dem Senate takeover. What optimism means is that these Republicans believe that there are enough reasons to believe that Republicans can hang on to enough seats in the House and enough in the Senate to barely miss the guillotine.
Reason 1 -- Senior Republicans have all but conceded… heck, they’ve conceded… eight to ten House races. In these races, in Republican internal polls that Rove trusts, the Dem candidate consistently outpolls the Republican candidate outside the margin of error. There are about 20 additional races where the D candidate either leads the R candidate WITHIN the margin, trades leads with the Republican, or occasionally leads outside the margin of error. The Rove Optimist believes that the national Republican turnout effort – the 72 Hour Program – can add one to two percent to the margins of Republicans. So if these Republicans can stay within the margin of error – within two points – of Democrats until Election Day, there’s a chance that Republicans can eek out victories in 70 percent of those contested races. Many of these races are located in congressional districts won by President Bush. Many involve incumbents who have had time to develop party-independent personas. Many represent districts drawn especially to preserve their seats. [MARC AMBINDER]
2. In the Senate, Republican internal polling shows George Allen up, Jim Talent and Bob Corker up slightly, Conrad Burns picking up Republican votes and narrowing the gap with Jon Tester. (Democratic internal polling shows Burns down six; Ford up, Webb up, and McCaskill up).
3. The NRCC spent lots of money very early to define and discredit and render unacceptable many of the Democrats in these tough races. The favorability ratings of many of these Democrats are low or, if they are high, they are soft and vulnerable. There are, in about 15 districts, enough undecided voters who could, in the right circumstances, decide to vote for the Republican.
4. A mantra: What happens during the last week of the election matters as much as what happened during the last month; what happens during the last three days matters as much as the last week. Republicans might catch a break from exogenous events; they might win news cycles in critical areas.
5. In general, the mechanics: Republican candidates have more money; the RNC still has a financial edge; both the NRSC and NRCC are prepared to deficit finance; the 72 Hour Program; The Bully Pulpit of the White House; A single, unified operation run by Ken Mehlman rather than three separate entities run by different people.
6. Republican internal surveys of the base show that the core of that base is primed and ready to turn out. The less-committed periphery of the base isn’t, but the core is. These surveys conflict with some public surveys, but Republicans have been proven right before. According to Republicans, early voting and absentee ballot programs are proceeding apace; 72 Hour Program contacts exceed the record-breaking ’04 levels; overall grassroots output is up.
7. This final reason is perhaps the most important. If Karl Rove evinces one shred of doubt about the fate of Republican congressional control, he’d be lucky if half of the volunteers who diligently show up to Republican victory centers across the country pack up and go home. Optimism breeds faith. And more importantly, optimism could mean the difference between losing 14 seats and losing 35. The base will pick up on signs of Bush’s pessimism, of Mehlman’s pessimism, of Rove’s pessimism. It pays real electoral dividends for the captain of the aircraft to be optimistic and calm as he or she tries to pull out of a downward spiral. To borrow, then torture, another metaphor, to be anything but positively buoyant would be akin to the coach of the basketball team calling a time out to tell the guys who are down 15 pts with a minute to go that things don’t look so good. Demoralizing doesn’t even begin to get at it.
Media polls over poll Democrats and under poll Republicans because they are using pre Karl Rove turn out averages to gage this years turn out. Actually the Republican base is scared to death of a house run by Nancy Pelosi and gang. They don't need a lot of motivation. Those that need motivation are the centrist voters that have for the last 3 elections voted Republican. They are the voters being targeted in the Grass Roots efforts of the Republican party.
We can see the efforts of the last few weeks in the polls as the Grass Roots efforts of the Republicans have begun to bear fruit. The final 72 hour push will move many races into the Republican win column.
What candidates will learn is that the media can no longer elect or re-elect anyone. But voters can and will elect and defeat those they oppose. The big loser in this election will be the media.
Candidates of both parties will come to understand that the voters are in control. Newer before has the media come out so strongly for a Democratic victory. They have dropped all attempts to appear neutral. The media is openly working for the Democrats. If the Democrats lose the media will take a huge hit.
Both parties will understand that the media cannot elect or defeat anyone. Both parties have come to believe that they dare not confront an openly biased media. So both the Democrat and Republican elected official are to the left of their parties base. They are trying to please the media.
But if the Republicans win both parties will see clearly that they must please the voters of this nation. Both parties will move to the right.
If we come to understand how important this election is for our nations future, and vote accordingly the media's influence will fall. A few media types will figure out what it takes to get a huge audience. The media too will move to the right. Not because they want to.. But because those few media types on the right will garner the largest audience.
This is the most important election of my lifetime. I can only hope and pray we have the sense to win it.
Thank you.
This is avery good post......
"Newer before has the media come out so strongly for a Democratic victory. They have dropped all attempts to appear neutral."
I think they do this every single election. I'll never forget how astonished I was when Nixon got re-elected. I was about 10 years old. It was then that I realized how deeply biased the media was (I grew up in NYC a truly media saturated town) and also that Nixon had been right about the "silent majority" (see tagline!). And the MSM wasn't 1/2 as bad then as they are now. I see no reason at all to expect them to change, not for at least 20 years can we expect to see any improvement.
bump for later
In fact the Media has not done what they have done this year.
I was in the media during Nixon Campaigns of both 1968 and 1972. I know for a fact the media was not nearly as biased as it is today. In fact in 1968 the media was very opposed to Lyndon Johnson over the Viet Nam War. They constantly hammered Hubert H. Humphry about his stand on Viet Nam. You may not beleive it but Nixon got a fair shake from the media in 1968.
By 1972 the media was opposed to Nixon. But they felt he would be easily defeated. They felt that if Viet Nam ruined LBJ's chances to run in 1968, it would destroy Nixon in 1972. They did little in 1972 to try to convince people that Nixon was the wrong choice. They were pretty sure that McGovern would win. They were very surprised and angered when Nixon won 60.7 percent of the vote.
At that point the media went back to June 17th 1972 and dug up the Watergate Breakin Story and began to use it to take Nixon down. It is interesting to note that between Jun 17th 1972 and election day in Nov. 1972 there were next to no stories on the Watergate break in. After some very limited coverage in June of 1972 the media dropped the Watergate story. It was only after the election that the media started to go after the Watergate story as a means of removing Nixon from office.
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