1) the medical insurance deal will hurt Romney a lot
2) the Mormon thing will be a big problem
3) a governor of a northeast liberal state will have problems carrying anything west or south, just like Giulani will have problems.
1) For my take on the insurance deal . . . it's been a positive for him now and was strongly supported byt the Conservative Think Tank "The Heritage Foundation." There is a knee jerk by many conservatives that it is a form of socialized medicine . . . for my take on it see: http://jjfuller72.redstate.com/story/2006/5/29/0030/34495
2) Admittedly this issue is a wildcard. I see the strong grassroots support and financial support he gets from LDS being negated by religious bigotry. Could cancel eachother out.
3) The SOuth will be the hardest sell for Romney (I lived there for 8 yrs and plan to move back next year.) However, he grew up a midwesterner and doesn't sound like a northeasterner. In the West, any bias against northeasterners will be more than made up for by the heavy LDS population. LDS won't block vote for ROmney, but the support will be overwhelming, IMO.