Posted on 02/11/2006 3:54:03 PM PST by struwwelpeter
This fall, Turkmenistan is preparing to raise the price of its exported natural gas by one and a half times - to $100 per thousand cubic meters. This was declared on Friday by the president of Turkmenistan, Sapamurat Niyazov, according to a report by Reuters.
"Europe has problems now. The prices of the energy sources are rising. We will also gradually raise our prices," said Niyazov during a news program on the government television station. "We have been selling for 44 dollars, now we are selling for 65, but from the ninth or tenth month of this year will we raise our rate to 100 dollars. We are conducting negotiations."
Turkmenistan is the main supplier of gas for Ukraine, and it also sells fuel to Russia and other countries.
At the end of December Gazprom signed a contract with Turkmen gas generators to deliver 30 billion cubic meters of fuel for the price of 65 US dollars (per 1000 cu. m.).
The first rumors of the proposed increase in the cost of Turkmen gas reached the press in the middle of January. Back then a possible price of $85 was reported. Experts stated that the increase in prices from Turkmenistan would automatically lead to higher prices for Ukraine, where Russia resells this gas.
Since the beginning of this year Russia has increased the price of their gas supplied to Ukraine from $50 to $230 per thousand cubic meters. According an agreement signed in the beginning of January, Ukraine now receives gas for $95 through Rosukrenergo, which mixes expensive Russian gas with cheaper gas from Turkmenistan.
If the Turkmen gas climbs to $100, however, then continuing deliveries to Ukraine for $95 will become unprofitable.
http://grani.ru/Economy/p.100311.html
The Kremlin puts on the screws
In Moscow, President of Russia Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin received President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich in a warm, friendly atmosphere, according to Interfax. In the course of their negotiations, the two sides came to an agreement about the return of Ukraine to the zone, or more specifically, to the zone of Russia's strategic interests. Present at the meeting was the head of Gazprom, Mr. Miller, who told Yanukovich that his country could from now on freely use the amount of Russian gas that was stipulated earlier, and that the remainder was his to steal. In the opinion of Russian political scientists noted in the vicinity of a buffet table in the Kremlin, the old days, when the Ukrainian elites did not consider Russia their older brother, were forever over. Now, the observers predicted, nothing could poison the age-old friendship between these fraternal peoples, not even gas.
A picture from the future? Well, in any case, from an imaginary future: the sweet early morning dreams of the Russian president.
Vengeance is the dish, which is served cold. Exactly one year Our Guarantor suffered and waited. He suffered his disgrace, those early conditional congratulations to Yanukovich, the victory of the Orange Revolution, and the slow but steady turn of Ukraine in the direction of Europe. He recalled and reminded various listeners of the hidden meaning of the Russian riddle 'A and B sat on a pipe'. He waited for winter, and in the wintertime, sitting on a pipe, he prepared to take revenge for all his failures. At long last he got his chance.
Our New Year's gifts for our little brothers fell like dust from a bag. 160 bucks for a thousand cubic meters, do you agree? No? Strange… how about 230? Now that is the last, final price, as of January 1st. That is it, end of discussion. Period. Perish in the cold. However, you can still do this: we give you credit at the declared price, and then be our lifelong debtors. This is it. No further proposals. Well, there is one more thing: your pipeline is our property. Again you say no? Well then, when it's time, our main TV stations will televise how we turn off the tap. Watch and fear!
Vengeance is a cold dish, which you must relish yourself. On the last day of the old year, Putin, putting aside the prepared text of his congratulations to the Russian people, on live television told the head of Gazprom how his heart was heavy for the Ukrainian people. "Perhaps we could wait another ten days?" he asked Miller. "No," replied the hard-hearted but natural monopolist. "A postponement won't bring results." Nothing is better than Putin when he makes a political decision: let them pay for the first quarter with the 2005 prices. But. Only if today, right on New Year's Eve, they fly to Moscow and sign an oath to pay 230 starting in the second quarter.
Vengeance is such a cold dish, when it garnished with the head of a vanquished enemy.
You cannot envy Yushchenko. He clearly did not anticipate these events when he and his advisers assumed that Gazprom's contract was valid up until 2009. One can argue about the duration of the contract, but one thing is indisputable: this lightening attack on the Ukraine, in the style of agents of the state security, was planned long in advance, and was especially designed to destroy a political enemy in the form of the Ukrainian president. When they are thinking about free market prices, they behave otherwise. It is solid, without hurry, and there is arm-twisting over a year or decades. When the only thought is the thought of war, then they release the gas. Like they did at 'Nord-Ost'. With only one difference: here they do not release any gas at all.
These days, when Europe is already close to panic, Yushchenko is crushed in a vise. Ukrainian elections are in March, and adding to his party's falling popularity is a gas war with Russia and his citizens freezing to death in their own homes. Simultaneously, as was obviously foreseen by Kremlin scenario, Kiev is experiencing serious problems in its relations with Europe related to Kiev's "unsanctioned selection" of transit gas for their own needs. To pay Russia a monopolistic price is unthinkable; Yushchenko would lose face. To take more gas will lead to conflict with all his neighbors at once. Therefore, he is doomed to simply rush about, in contrast to the notorious Yanukovich. In the eyes of the Ukrainian population, Yanukovich could become the guarantor of stability in this conflict with Russia. It is obvious that Moscow can come to a mutual understanding with this president, as it could with Kuchma, and with Lukashenko over there in Belarus.
Here is the course of the events we observed during the first days of January: vengeance in its purest form, without admixtures, and in Our Guarantor's own unique style, as it was in the Babitsky case, the Khodorkovsky case, and in others on a lesser scale. Everything else: the details, and the operational cover, are the same.
Especially with regards to the new Russian geopolitics: energy leadership, a freshly baked foreign policy supported by our raw materials. A normal salesman, who thinks about profit, does not act this way. A normal state, which worries about a stable profit, first of all demonstrates its predictability, since a good reputation is more important than anything else. A salesman, who out of personal ambition is capable leaving his buyers without gas, will sooner or later lose their confidence in his goods. He will simply scare away his clients. Moreover, as far as all raw materials go, Russia does not have an absolute monopoly - there are other sources.
So, what will come out of the pipeline? For Ukraine and Moldavia comes a time of heavy trials. It is clear that the Kremlin scenario was calculated interference in Ukrainian affairs, conducted to politically humiliate Viktor Yushchenko and put pressure on the voters of a neighboring country. Like the Chechen War, the Gas War will immerse that society in an economic depression to force to their capitulation. Now there is talk of a Ukrainian social consciousness. Disappointed in their Orange leaders, the Ukrainian people could hold Yushchenko responsible for everything, including the conflict with Russia. A different version is possible, however: the people may unite in the face of this natural catastrophe and insolent blackmail, and support their leaders as they did last year on Maidan Nenadlezhnosti (Kiev's Independence Square).
Trials also await Europe. The ex-chancellor of Germany, who entered into Putin's service in a company headed by former East German security service officer Mathias Varnig, has made his choice. Today other European leaders must prove those European values, about which they love to talk so thoroughly and eloquently in Brussels. Is European solidarity a living thing, or is this just more empty chatter from the mouths of vendible and timid Euro-officials? If selfish instincts, as in Schroeder's case, triumph, then Yushchenko will lose, and it will become clear that the reason Europe united was to simply satisfy the well-known inclinations of our own Count of Monte Cristo. If, however, a majority of leaders in the civilized nations are hard enough in their dialogue with the Kremlin, and in their protection of the Ukrainian revolution they so wildly greeted a year ago, then all is not lost. First of all, all is not lost for Russia, where gas is now taking the place of tanks, foreign policy, and brains.
Ilya Milshtein
January 4th, 2006 08:07
I'm done with this. We have plenty of oil and natural gas in America and WE keep letting the enemy within keep us from drilling in ANWAR and anywhere else in America. The Middle East and Venezuela can shove off. We need to start using our own fuels and let these Idiots we are buying from dry up. I don't want to hear that we don't have oil and natural gas. We also need to build nuclear power plants and protect them. We have the means to tell these enemies to shove off icluding th EPA and all the rest.
We have plenty of oil and natural gas in America
don't forget our coal, i believe enough to supply our energy for 400 years...
Former German Chancellor Schroeder's new bosses.
"don't forget our coal, i believe enough to supply our energy for 400 years..."
No I won't and thanks for reminding me.
It could be taken as a GOOD sign, or perhaps the Russian government doesn't think a few hundred intelligentsii reading grani.ru are as big a threat as 100 million TV viewers.
China, OTOH, is doing their best to keep genies in their bottles.
In this article, translated by some genius (clears throat), the writer compares Putin to Freddy Kruger:
Somebody said she must be the Russian version of Molly Ivins ;-)Putin is coming to get you
In childhood, our most Christian of Presidents was offended by the bourgeois and oligarchs, and vowed harsh vengeance on the worldwide secret society that ate all his teacakes and rock candy. After our own Freddy Kruger went after Khodorkovsky, the country reacted with public prostration, and in close to a lethargic sleep the bourgeois, intellectuals, politicians, and the average man worked out mechanisms for psychological self-defense...
33.6 Gigatonnes of coal and 174.5 billion barrels (Gb) of oil here in Alberta. No problem selling it south of the line either. I think you might find us a bit easier to deal with than the Saudis.
I believe that. I think it would do both of us good.
Only Ukraine and Russia buy Turkmen gas I think. The rest of European countries don't care.
But European countries already have signed long term contracts with Russian Gazprom. Russia used to buy most of Turkmen gas and resell to Europe for similar price as Russian gas.
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