Not a very good theory.
Well, the fact is that they will sit home, as they did to Bush's father in 1992. I can't believe that the GOP does not know this - they vividly remember that year. However, when it comes time for elections, and the democrat opponent clearly wants to shove things like taxes, gay marraige, and America hatred down your throat, some (not all) conservatives will come out to the polls.
I also remember in 91-92 how frustrated we all were that Bush refused to go on the offensive. He just rolled over and received the beating.
We walked away and said, "I guess he really didn't want to win."
And after Newt and the revolution of 94, the Democrats filibustered and shut down the government. While conservatives cheered that they couldn't spend any of our money for a couple of days, the GOP freaked out and the conservative advance was killed. To this day, I can't figure out what's wrong with shutting down the government. Big deal!