Evolution defies the Second Law of Thermodynamics. In plain terms, it expects people to accept, on blind, unverifiable faith, that out of disorder, and through a bunch of accidents, order is created--, disorder becomes order. Another way of looking at that would be to think of a deck of cards, carefully shuffled and thrown high in the air. With the expectation that eventually an “accident” would happen which would cause all 52 cards in the deck, to fall in perfect order, and perfectly aligned.
Working from my admittedly hazy recollection of high school statistics and an Excel spreadsheet, I think the chances of throwing a deck of cards in the air and having it come down in order is 1 in (52x51x50x49....x1) or 8.07^67. Seems like a small chance.
But then compare it to the number of chances there are in the natural world. Say you have a bacterium that divides once a day. Each division is like throwing the genetic deck of cards in the air. So first you have 1 bacterium, then you have 2, then 4, then 8 and so on. After a year, you have 3.8^109 bacteria -- that's way bigger than the 1 in 8.07^67 chance of getting the cards in order. In other words, even though the chances of getting the cards in order is so small, you will have so many bacteria that one of them is almost guaranteed to have the genetic cards in order. Even if you assume mutations only occur once in every trillion tosses of the genetic cards, it still seems like the chances of getting the generic cards in order is almost 100%.
Can someone with better math skills confirm this?
Also, my understanding is that the 2nd Law applies to closed systems that do not receive energy from an outside source, such as a gigantic unshielded fusion reactor 93 million miles away.
Working from my admittedly hazy recollection of high school statistics and an Excel spreadsheet, I think the chances of throwing a deck of cards in the air and having it come down in order is 1 in (52x51x50x49....x1) or 8.07^67. Seems like a small chance.
But then compare it to the number of chances there are in the natural world. Say you have a bacterium that divides once a day. Each division is like throwing the genetic deck of cards in the air. So first you have 1 bacterium, then you have 2, then 4, then 8 and so on. After a year, you have 3.8^109 bacteria -- that's way bigger than the 1 in 8.07^67 chance of getting the cards in order. In other words, even though the chances of getting the cards in order is so small, you will have so many bacteria that one of them is almost guaranteed to have the genetic cards in order. Even if you assume mutations only occur once in every trillion tosses of the genetic cards, it still seems like the chances of getting the generic cards in order is almost 100%.