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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 0wn3d; 0wn4g3; 0wned; 1dumbtroll; asphaultlikesit; clowns; dancingonkmbsgrave; darkshearesfault; deepcovertroll; duidiot; dumbassdunce; dumbassidiot; dumbassliberal; dumbasstroll; dumberthanhammers; dunce; dutroll; echoechoecho; facerules; headupass; hostiletakeover; ideservezot; ilovezot; molassesmiasma; notmyfault; own4g3; ownage; owned; ownzored; ozone; ozoneactionthread; penguinhumor; permanentminority; pwn3d; pwn4g3; pwnd; pwned; pwnz0r3d; spawnofundeadtrhread; trollishigh; trolloncrack; trollonpot; undeadroadtrip; undeadthread3; undernewmanagement; whowritesthisbs; wildturkeys; wppff; zot
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To: King Prout

LOL!
A bent pin?!
Wish everything were that easy with computers.


4,241 posted on 08/20/2005 12:08:34 PM PDT by Darksheare (This tagline has gone berserk! Run for your lives! _______\o/_______ Aiiiiie it's got me!)
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To: Monkey Face

I have my moments. ;-)


4,242 posted on 08/20/2005 12:09:21 PM PDT by tuliptree76 (I'm sailing on the wide accountancy.)
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To: DukeFan4Ever

(McCain IS a true Republican...)

You claimed that August 18th was the first time you have been here.
That is not true, as you had to come here to register on June 8th.
I suggest you cease lying, and I suggest you quit boosting McCain as he is a RINO and not at all interested in conservative ideals as shown by his willingness to sell out to the commie libs if it suits his own interests.


4,243 posted on 08/20/2005 12:11:12 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: Darksheare

Hiya, Darks!
How have you been? I saw your posts to that dweeb last night....who the heck does he think he is? I gave him a peice of my mind, though... #4200

;o]


4,244 posted on 08/20/2005 12:12:50 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: DukeFan4Ever

"Yeah, Ken Starr..."- post 4104

Only people from DU think that calling someone 'Ken Starr' is an insult.


4,245 posted on 08/20/2005 12:22:55 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: DukeFan4Ever; King Prout

"Again, sorry I can't keep track of all of my movements 2 months ago."

Well, you had to have known you didn't register 'just yesterday' when you signed in.
That doesn't make any sense.


4,246 posted on 08/20/2005 12:24:21 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: fanfan

Doc checked me for such things, because I have history of diabetes on both sides of my lineage, and diabetic onset can allow an infection to rage far worse than it should, thus producing the hugh WBCcount.

Doc's a devious one, ain't she?

(she is, hands down, the best GP/Internist within 70 miles... also the busiest)

anyways... I an't fat and I ain't diabetic or protodiabetic.

so nu?


4,247 posted on 08/20/2005 12:48:17 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: tuliptree76

*shrugs*

Maybe the test indicates I'm a vampire...


4,248 posted on 08/20/2005 12:49:56 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: Monkey Face

I'm *usually* healthy as hell. I don't grok what has been going on lately.


4,249 posted on 08/20/2005 12:50:54 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: King Prout

Can you see your reflection in a mirror?


4,250 posted on 08/20/2005 12:51:16 PM PDT by tuliptree76 (I'm sailing on the wide accountancy.)
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To: Darksheare

no joke.

this was the final stage of a lengthy and involved process of post-viral repairs, so it was *allowed* to be a trivial matter


4,251 posted on 08/20/2005 12:53:49 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: King Prout

Well, you realize, of course, that we will all be awaiting updates...


4,252 posted on 08/20/2005 12:54:25 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: tuliptree76

yes, but that's a myth ;)


4,253 posted on 08/20/2005 12:54:47 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: King Prout

LOL, ouch.
But one never looks for the trivial things after doing other repairs.


4,254 posted on 08/20/2005 12:55:48 PM PDT by Darksheare (There is a Possum in the works.)
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To: Monkey Face

you'll know what I know when I know it... or, if I take the dirtnap, when someone comes on to let you know
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JOKE! JOKE! CALM DOWN!

I am in no danger of death from this crap


4,255 posted on 08/20/2005 12:56:50 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: Darksheare

yeah, the techie had a good (friendly) laugh over it.


4,256 posted on 08/20/2005 12:57:52 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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To: King Prout

*tapping foot*
And you can go to bed without supper, too, young man!


4,257 posted on 08/20/2005 12:58:02 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: DukeFan4Ever
I didn't have to sign in to do anything, I just got on the site on away I went .I swear on MacArthur's grave I don't recall being on this site previous to last night,

There is a registration process. No one could miss it. Or forget they went through it. Are you suggesting that your name was assigned to you by FR? Your story doesn't "hold water".

so how 'bout we call it a draw and move forward...

Not gonna happen.

4,258 posted on 08/20/2005 12:59:27 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If you think you know what's coming next....You don't know Jack.)
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To: King Prout
I understood everything, except this....so nu?

?

4,259 posted on 08/20/2005 1:00:09 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: Monkey Face

*puppydog eyes*


**sad kitten eyes**


***BAMBI eyes***



























****HYPNOTOAD EYES****


4,260 posted on 08/20/2005 1:00:48 PM PDT by King Prout (and the Clinton Legacy continues: like Herpes, it is a gift that keeps on giving.)
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