North Korea has Nuke (They admit it) BREAKING

Ping to a thread that is one of the best on Free Republic,
they were giving the answers to my questions, as I dreamed them up.

Thank you, to all who share your knowledge with me.

Thank you for alerting me to this thread and sharing your
insight, it does mean a great deal to me.

They don't have enough space in NK to make a test.

re 38 Thanks.

re 39 Interesting analysis, bears watching very carefuly. Hope Condi has a handle on this.

You have hit the main point. Think about this, how happy will S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan be over this. These are hihgly developed nations and could have nulkes before dinner tonight. Further the Japanese are actually building a REAL military as opposed to a glorified police force. They have quietly acquired bombers, numerous cargo lift planes, and logistical support equipment.

Look out a few years and you'll see a US, Austraila, Japan, and India alliance. I wonder which side Europe and Russia will come down on that. A few montha ago I'd have thought it likely that the EU would be with China and the Arabs.

Bump. I thought we knew this too.

Thanks for the ping nwg.

Interesting thread.

BTTT

Hey Tiger remember there was report that Little Kim was depress drink himself to death over loss of his long time mistress and mother of two of his kids
REMEMBER

I thought he drinking himself to death

"He may give up some in exchange for economic aids and non-aggression pact, to make things look nice and pretty. However, he would hold onto the remaining nukes as the most important leverage used to battle economic and political hardships."

We'd have to offer the most ridiculous 'aid' (bribe) package in history to get them to give up one. We've offered them the security pact and the economic aid (bribe) in exchange for verifiable nuclear dismantlement and they told us to stick it.

"Besides, there are signs of cracks in N. Korean system."

That's the most dangerous time to deal with a psychotic dictator; when he's desperate and backed into a corner.

"To keep the house in order, he may need to ratchet up the tension on the international stage."

That's certainly a component. It also spurs activity among the generals and such, which is a handy way to spot those less than loyal to the regime. Classic totalitarian tactic: flush and purge.

"It is also to be noted that America and Iran are locked on a nuclear dispute which is escalating."

Not to mention the fact that we're locked down in Afghanistan and Iraq right now with much of the rest of our military spread out across the global landscape on UN and NATO (never-ending) missions.

"America has at least outwardly softened its stance in an attempt to lure N. Korea back to 6-way talks, it is likely that Kim Jong-il saw it as American weakness and made this move."

We did a little posturing, but we weren't prepared for Kennedy-style brinksmanship. In the game of posturing and brinksmanship, the one with the biggest pair wins. In our case, we simply didn't have the backbone to see it through, so now we're losing our shirt in North Korea's little game. They were ready to give up the nukes and were just shopping around for a nice aid package to keep the regime cozy. Now that we've lost the brinksmanship game, they'll be shopping for an even better aid package to keep the nukes from being used/tested, but without having to dismantle them or the programs building them.

"That is, this move would force America to deal with Iran and N. Korea simultaneously."

This, quite frankly, is impossible. We do not have the military capability to fight wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea while keeping up our global UN and NATO commitments. Some ultra-nationalists will blast me for saying that and come out with "but ve rule ze vorld!" style rhetoric, but it's the truth. Without a good 10 years of build-up, training, and tons of cash being dumped into the military, we will take massive (as in WWI/WWII) casualties if a fight with North Korea and Iran breaks out with everything else going on. If we can get out of Iraq quickly, we'll take slightly less than massive casualties. I don't think anyone wants to see our men and women sent to their deaths over BS political games. Let's let the Israelis do something with all the hardware we've been handing them all these years. Let the Israelis deal with Iran however the Israelis want to deal with Iran and make it public that we're stepping back to let our allies deal with the situation that primarily affects their backyard (as opposed to our's). That'll bring Iran into line and put at least some pressure on North Korea. Then we need to bring in several strike groups into the Sea of Japan and start a nice massive buildup of troops and weaponry in Diego Garcia, Japan, and in the surrounding waters while avoiding a build-up in South Korea due to its already shaky political situation and its proximity to North Korean missiles and artillery. Then we hop back into the brinksmanship game with an outright threat of total war if the North Korean government doesn't comply. Kim Jong-il will agree to backroom talks and we'll end up with a nice and pretty agreement or a war that'll end the crisis.

"On the bright side, this would reduce the range of excuse China, Russia, and S. Korea can come up with to stall American goal."

Quite frankly, the Russians don't give a damn either way. They've been selling weapons and weapons technology to North Korea for a long, long time, and North Korea doesn't perceive them as a threat. Ergo, none of North Korea's weaponry is pointed at them. The Chinese are a different story. They've been selling weapons and weapon technologies to North Korea in addition to the humanitarian aid they give them to keep the regime afloat, keep the region stable, and keep American forces occupied with North Korea instead of with Taiwan. It's a handy distraction, but they also realize the risk involved in making North Korea too big, which is where they're at now. A nuclear-armed North Korea is not in China's best interest, as Kim Jong-il is recognized as unstable enough to send nuclear warheads strapped to the end of a Tae-po Dong II at Beijing just as fast as he would Tokyo or Seoul. Hence, China's military build-up along the border with North Korea. The official reason in to help halt 'illegal immigration', but they must have quite the determined immigrants crossing the border there to need tank divisions, artillery, and aircraft.

"dealing with both Iran and N. Korea could be a burden for a short term."

It isn't a burden, it's an impossibility. I don't have to tell you that North Korea throws every dime it gets its hands on into the military. What they end up with is a million regulars, two million reserves, a massive arsenal of artillery and short to medium-range missiles, and several nuclear weapons. The only border we can cross to enter their country is the most heavily defended one; the one they've been building up against an American invasion for the last 50 years. Getting in there to get the job done while we're in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and spread out on UN and NATO missions isn't feasible. Doing so would cost so many lives that we'd have riots in the streets here at home. We've become awefully cozy with our military superiority against single foes, so a long and drawn-out fight with massive casualties would likely turn the vast majority of the American people against military operations altogether regardless of their necessity.