Ukraine: Rerun Election, Rerun of Tension

Stratfor ^ | 23-12-04 | Stratfor

[Critical Bill]

Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Summary Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Analysis After the Ukrainian Supreme Court's decision to nullify the country's hotly contested presidential runoff election, the country will hold a rerun of the election Dec. 26. Incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko will be on the ballot again -- and like the runoff election, this vote is certain to cause controversy.

Pro-Russian Yanukovich and pro-Western Yushchenko both have large and passionate followings with Yanukovich's support concentrated in the populous industrial region of the southeast and Yushchenko's in the west. Sources in Yushchenko's camp say that if Yushchenko is declared the winner, Yanukovich has said he will accept the results. If Yanukovich is declared the winner, however, Yushchenko has said that he and his followers are prepared to protest the results.

In case of an unlikely but not impossible Yanukovich victory, Yushchenko's camp is fully prepared to -- and has announced it will -- cry election fraud again and try to take power by force. That would be the most dangerous course of action; sources in the Yanukovich-led Party of Regions indicate there is no way Yanukovich's supporters would let it happen without resistance. Even if Ukraine's government forces stay idle -- which is most likely -- Yanukovich's supporters would march on Kiev in huge numbers to protest there as Yushchenko's supporters have done. This time, considering how high tensions are on all sides, clashes might occur.

Though Yanukovich has said he would accept a Yushchenko victory, sources from various social groups in eastern Ukraine say many Yanukovich supporters would be disappointed by timidity on the part of Yanukovich or Moscow. The sources also say radical Yanukovich supporters have made plans to take matters into their own hands. Thus, if Yushchenko wins, there could be political resistance -- with the possibility of violence -- organized on the grassroots level, not by Yanukovich or Moscow, shortly after the election.

[Critical Bill]

I keep expecting to see an advertisement for the movie "The Toxic Avenger".

[Critical Bill]

Posted this in 'Bloggers' by mistake.

[eluminate]

yep fairly expected. The cossack union pledged full support for Yanukovich etc... its not big but grassroots wise its very well done. All I know is that all the generals in ukraine are Kuchma related by blood/friendship and almost all are from Denpropetrovsk region thats where kuchma is from. None of them will switch sides if he comes under danger because they will all be affected. One big happy clan. (they have em in western ukraine too)