Enough of the Disinformation! Let's Report Facts and Crunch Numbers on the Ohio Recount

[jveritas]

Great work. I am going to reflect little bit more on the numbers and the assumptions.

[StJacques]

Make sure you read the article linked in the second paragraph under "Provisional Ballots," which is the "Associated Press" canvas link. They make some comments in there about how provisional ballots break, and which I have read elsewhere, that are used in the article. It's my deliberate decision to increment Kerry's votes that shows that the conclusions are valid.

[bayourod]

"I also am making an outside source available for this blog. "

This ain't no blog.

Other than that, good work. Your logical progression remands me of Karl Rove's lectures.

[StJacques]

I suppose it is similar to a lecture. I had to use that format to make sense of the numbers. If you're going to quantify something you must do so logically.

Are you from Louisiana bayourod? Can't help notice the nic. I'm from Lafayette.

[jveritas]

Your analysis for the Provisional ballots is excellent and I think that it will very much go the way you analyzed it.

On the spoiled ballots, you are right by saying that the scenario you put down for Kerry favor is not really believable. You assumed it is all "undervotes", although I am confident that many of these spoiled ballots are overvotes, i.e. voting for two Presidential candidates. Also you assume that Kerry will get 90% of the undervotes. Like you, I think that this is impossible, but even with this impossible scenario regarding the spoiled ballots, President Bush will still win Ohio by over 43000 votes. No wonder why Kerry conceded and said in his concession speech that even all the provisional ballots are counted, there will not be enough votes for them to win. They have analyzed every precinct and they found out that they have zero chance of winning, so Kerry conceded.

By the way you should put this great post of yours on a more visible section of FR and not on bloggers section. Please ask the moderator to move it for you.

Again, Great work my fellow freeper.

[bayourod]

Went to Jr & High school in Bossier City. You probably don't consider that Louisiana.

[TexasGreg]

You have produced a fantastic analysis. GOOD work. Sadly, something this lucid will see the light of day for most networks.

Ohio has enacted a law that gives very precise instructions as to how punch card ballots are recounted and that requires that two corners of a "chad" must be detached before the vote can be counted.

There is only ONE problem with this point: When has the LAW on elections (or anything else) ever mattered for Democrats? Even though Ohio Election law says this, that won't stop Dems from trying to change it or get it declared unconstitutional. I don't put ANYTHING past these traitorous monsters.

[StJacques]

I would like to have posted it under "News/Activism" but my experience in posting similar content is that it gets moved here. But I thank you for your kind words.

[StJacques]

". . . There is only ONE problem with this point: When has the LAW on elections (or anything else) ever mattered for Democrats? . . ."

Well if I must answer your question in one word, I would have to say . . .

NEVER!

But I will also say that election law does give the states a significant degree of latitude, provided they do not violate their own constitution and statutory law. The Ohio law would hold up.

But then, the obvious response one would make to that point is -- "after how long a legal battle and at what cost in terms of public perception"? And the answer is sadly "after a lengthy court fight and with significant partisan feeling." Ten thousand lawyers can be wrong but they can't be stopped from burning the house down.

[codercpc]

Excellent work, thanks for the ping. Can someone post this on DU and watch them cry?

[StJacques]

"Excellent work, thanks for the ping. Can someone post this on DU and watch them cry?"

We do that and we'll have another Jonestown on our hands, and no one wants that.

Do we?

[Teslas Pigeon]

"When has the LAW on elections (or anything else) ever mattered for Democrats?"

Very true, but it seems from some of the posts from Ohio Freepers, the Ohio courts are very different from the courts in Florida. Ohio also has a Repub Governor and both houses of the state legislature are Repub.

[Teslas Pigeon]

BTW, I forget to say great work StJacques!

[jveritas]

Is it possible to move this great post to a more visible section on FR. Our new fellow freeper have done a very good analysis regarding Ohio Provisional ballots and it will be good to be seen by more freepers.

Thank you.

[Tacos]

Aren't the yahoos on DU also claiming that the "regular" votes we are either rigged or just in error (which to them would mean all errors must be benefiting Bush?).

Logic and DU don't mix...it's like matter and antimatter!

[Tacos]

(grammar correction :-/ )

Aren't the yahoos on DU also claiming that the "regular" votes were either rigged or just in error (which to them would mean all errors must be benefiting Bush)?

Logic and DU don't mix...it's like matter and antimatter!

[Bonaventure]

I agree that this is sound analysis, although, like jveritas, I doubt 90% of the spoiled ballots will end up being counted. Some will be overvotes, some will be ballots cast by voters who chose not to mark a candidate for president, and a large number will be ballots in which it is simply impossible to discern the voter's intent.

[Bonaventure]

I agree that this is sound analysis, although, like jveritas, I doubt 90% of the spoiled ballots will end up being counted. Some will be overvotes, some will be ballots cast by voters who chose not to mark a candidate for president, and a large number will be ballots in which it is simply impossible to discern the voter's intent.

[Voteamerica]

Have the absentee votes been included in your total?

Maybe I just didn't look hard enough, but I didn't find them. How do you assume they will go? Will they influence the bottom line?