Posted on 11/17/2004 7:01:49 PM PST by StJacques
After doing some online reading and sifting through the terribly erroneous reporting that is out there on what is going down in Ohio, I now am compelled to put up a second blog on the Ohio recount, since there is some better data available than I was able to use in the last one I put up a few days ago. The source of my outrage -- an article in the Rocky Mount Telegram that claimed there were 760,000 punch card ballots that did not register a vote for President in Ohio -- which is an unbelievable error of fact, there were 92,672 fewer votes cast for President than total voters who voted. So maybe it's time to revisit the Ohio vote once again and put up some verifiable facts, with sources included, that puts the matter in sharp focus, without all the background noise that seems targeted to create doubts about the outcome. Make no mistake about it everyone, Bush won Ohio. But's let's crunch some numbers to show why this is so.
The "Big Picture" in Ohio: The "Real Stats" and Bush's Current Margin of Victory
Before we get started it is important to keep in perspective exactly what we are looking at, so that we do not lose sight of what any potential recount may mean. And it is also vital that we use verifiable data in presenting our information, something that many of those commenting upon the proposed recount in Ohio are avoiding. I will be using the Ohio Secretary of State's official statistics, which you can "pop up" and view separately by clicking here if you would like to check my presentation and/or my calculations. I also am making an outside source available for this blog. I have prepared two tables containing "County by County Statistics" for Provisional Ballots and "Undervotes" in Ohio which the real "stats junkies" will want to see. I have this up on a remote web server which you can pop up and view separately from this thread by clicking here.
Now, with no provisional ballots, late arriving absentee ballots, military ballots, or uncounted punch card ballots or others figuring into the mix, President Bush leads John Kerry by 136,483 votes. The official results are Bush 2,796,147 votes, Kerry 2,659,664. And in order to gauge what kind of an impact the counting of Provisional Ballots and, possibly "Undervotes," which means punch card ballots and others that were not counted by machines, can have we must look at the totals. And keep in mind that it is still not certain that "Undervotes" will be counted, but the recent efforts by Liberatarian candidate Badnarik to pursue a recount suggest that a recount will take place.
Provisional Ballots in Ohio
According to the Ohio Secretary of State's office a total of 155,428 provisional ballots were cast in Ohio's eighty-eight counties on election day. Voters were permitted to cast provisional ballots if they requested but did not receive or cast an absentee ballot, if they were not listed on the voter rolls at the precinct in which they voted, or in some cases, if the waiting line was too long to permit them to vote. Provisional ballots must be "authenticated" before their votes are recorded. The voter rolls must be checked to determine if the voter is registered and, following from a lower court decision prior to the election, they must be cast in the precinct where the voter is listed. It also must be verified that the voter has not cast an absentee vote. If these three criteria are met, and the proper information such as signature and address is included, the provisional ballot is recorded among the other votes in the precinct.
According to a quick canvas by the Associated Press about eighty-one percent of provisional ballots in some eleven counties have been accepted, though Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) has rejected about one third of the nine thousand plus ballots it has reviewed thus far, most because voters were registered. And, what is really important, is that provisional ballots generally break between candidates in the same percentages as the election day vote in their counties. With this in mind it might be useful to separate Ohio's provisional ballots along the lines of "Bush" and "Kerry" counties, to examine where the provisional ballots are located.
Provisional Ballots Cast in Counties Carried By John Kerry
| Number of Counties 1 | Number of Provisional Ballots | Percentage of All Provisional Ballots | Election Day Percentage for John Kerry |
| 15 | 81,766 | 52.6 | 57.9% 2 |
So the distribution of the provisional ballots statewide is in Kerry's favor, given that slightly over half of these are in counties he carried and his percentage of the tabulated vote on election day in these counties is sizable, 57.9%.
ASSUMPTION NO. 1: IT IS LIKELY KERRY WILL GET 57.9% OF THE PROVISIONAL BALLOTS CAST IN COUNTIES HE CARRIED ON ELECTION DAY.
ASSUMPTION NO. 2: THE TOTAL PROVISIONAL BALLOTS CAST IN COUNTIES KERRY CARRIED THAT WILL BE COUNTED WILL REPRESENT 81% OF THE TOTAL.
ASSUMPTION NO. 3: WE WILL INCREMENT KERRY'S TOTAL PERCENTAGE BY 10% TO PROVIDE A "MARGIN OF COMFORT" FOR OUR CALCULATIONS.
Our first assumption is in keeping with the general trend that has provsional ballots breaking along the lines of all votes in the counties in which they were cast, our second assumption follows from the Associated Press report of a representative sampling of counties which indicates that, due to more ballots being cast than usual by unregistered voters, 81% of provisional ballots are being authenticated, and our third assumption is our "margin of comfort" in giving John Kerry every possible break in the ballot counting -- yes the idea turns my stomach too, but bear with me.
Total Provisional Ballots in Kerry Counties: 81,766 - (81,766 * .10) = 73,589
Kerry's Percentage of Provisional Ballots in Kerry Counties: 57.9% + 10% = 67.9%
Kerry's Estimated Votes from Provisional Ballots in Kerry Counties: 73,589 * 67.9% = 49,967
Bush's Estimated Votes from Provisional Ballots in Kerry Counties: 73,589 - 49,967 = 23,622
Provisional Ballots Cast in Counties Carried By George Bush
| Number of Counties 3 | Number of Provisional Ballots | Percentage of All Provisional Ballots | Election Day Percentage for George Bush |
| 73 | 73,662 | 47.4 | 60.1% 3 |
Now we add our totals:
Kerry: 2,659,664 + 49,967 + 33,214 = 2,742,845
Bush: 2,796,147 + 23,622 + 33,214 = 2,852,983
Bush's "comfortable" lead after provisional ballots: 2,852,983 - 2,742,845 = 110,138
That's a 110,138 vote lead for Bush even with Kerry getting a 10%+ break in the counting of the provisional ballots in both the counties he carried and the ones Bush carried, which means that Bush's actual lead will be about 120,000 when you look at the real numbers.
"Undervotes" in Ohio
In the event of an "official recount" rejected ballots, or "undervotes" will be examined. So we'll put that information up as well. These are the figures for registered voters, turnout, and "undervotes" in Ohio.
Statewide Voter Turnout and Undervotes in Ohio 4
| Number of Registered Voters | Number of Votes Cast 5 | Total Votes for President | Undervotes 6 |
| 7,979,639 | 5,574,476 | 5,481,804 | 92,672 |
Now in this case we could go farther to demonstrate that Kerry will not get all of these votes either, but I submit that is not necessary in light of what was just demonstrated above. Since there are only 92,672 total "undervotes" and the "comfortably" estimated Bush lead after the counting of provisional ballots will be at least 110,000 votes, the "undervotes" become a moot point. But let me make some additional comments just to soothe nerves here. First; not all rejected ballots will be counted as showing votes for any presidential candidate during a hand recount. Ohio has enacted a law that gives very precise instructions as to how punch card ballots are recounted and that requires that two corners of a "chad" must be detached before the vote can be counted. This means that some percentage of the rejected ballots will not be counted for either candidate. Make a comfortable prediction that this figure will be 10% and you're down to 83,405 ballots that will be counted. Then give John Kerry 90% of those remaining, I know that's ridiculous, but go ahead and do it, and he only gets 75,064 votes, with 8341 going for Bush and the final total would look like the following, building on the "comfortable" figures we just developed above:
Bush: 2,852,983 + 8341 = 2,861,324
Kerry: 2,742,845 + 75,064 = 2,817,909
Bush's "comfortable" margin: 2,861,324 - 2,817,909 = 43,415
And ladies and gentlemen, that 43,415 margin is a number derived by a series of assumptions in Kerry's favor that stretch the boundaries of believability. In other words, the 43,415 vote margin is a brick wall.
Now for some final comments about other absentee ballots. The Ohio Secretary of State's office has posted rules for absentee ballots in Ohio that make clear that absentee ballots for Ohioans not living abroad or in the military must be received by 7:30 p.m. the day of the election. That means they're already counted. Military ballots will break in Bush's favor, this is a constant across all states, something I think is well known. And the number of Ohioans living abroad who vote absentee cannot be large, and those ballots were due November 12. Bottom line: any other ballots to be considered will break in Bush's favor.
Ladies and gentlemen, that does it! Bush won Ohio, no matter what the Democratic conspiracy theorists and tin foil freaks say to the contrary. Stop worrying!
Great work. I am going to reflect little bit more on the numbers and the assumptions.
Make sure you read the article linked in the second paragraph under "Provisional Ballots," which is the "Associated Press" canvas link. They make some comments in there about how provisional ballots break, and which I have read elsewhere, that are used in the article. It's my deliberate decision to increment Kerry's votes that shows that the conclusions are valid.
This ain't no blog.
Other than that, good work. Your logical progression remands me of Karl Rove's lectures.
On the spoiled ballots, you are right by saying that the scenario you put down for Kerry favor is not really believable. You assumed it is all "undervotes", although I am confident that many of these spoiled ballots are overvotes, i.e. voting for two Presidential candidates. Also you assume that Kerry will get 90% of the undervotes. Like you, I think that this is impossible, but even with this impossible scenario regarding the spoiled ballots, President Bush will still win Ohio by over 43000 votes. No wonder why Kerry conceded and said in his concession speech that even all the provisional ballots are counted, there will not be enough votes for them to win. They have analyzed every precinct and they found out that they have zero chance of winning, so Kerry conceded.
By the way you should put this great post of yours on a more visible section of FR and not on bloggers section. Please ask the moderator to move it for you.
Again, Great work my fellow freeper.
Went to Jr & High school in Bossier City. You probably don't consider that Louisiana.
I would like to have posted it under "News/Activism" but my experience in posting similar content is that it gets moved here. But I thank you for your kind words.
Excellent work, thanks for the ping. Can someone post this on DU and watch them cry?
Thank you.
(grammar correction :-/ )
Aren't the yahoos on DU also claiming that the "regular" votes were either rigged or just in error (which to them would mean all errors must be benefiting Bush)?
Logic and DU don't mix...it's like matter and antimatter!
I agree that this is sound analysis, although, like jveritas, I doubt 90% of the spoiled ballots will end up being counted. Some will be overvotes, some will be ballots cast by voters who chose not to mark a candidate for president, and a large number will be ballots in which it is simply impossible to discern the voter's intent.
I agree that this is sound analysis, although, like jveritas, I doubt 90% of the spoiled ballots will end up being counted. Some will be overvotes, some will be ballots cast by voters who chose not to mark a candidate for president, and a large number will be ballots in which it is simply impossible to discern the voter's intent.
Maybe I just didn't look hard enough, but I didn't find them. How do you assume they will go? Will they influence the bottom line?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.