I think who 'won' the debates is irrelevant. The important piece is who wins the spin. And I think the D's orchestrated efforts to spam polls and call ins and letters to the editor won the opening round. And you can count on the media trying to cement that early lead for Kerry.
I think the BC04 campaign has to very quickly get some of Kerry's big gaffes into commercials so that they become part of the story, not just more Boston fog that dissipates. We need to see an ad about 'global test' We need to see an ad that blasts Kerry's unilateral approach to NK. We need to see an ad that says Kerry wants to disarm the only weapon that could destroy the Iranian Mad Mullahs' Nukes if diplomacy does fail.
BTW, the instapolls aren't working. The "spin" from even the MSM is disappointment with Kerry, not Bush.